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Prediction markets for The Movie Performance

Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3610413

OptionProbability

Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

Other

Google (eg Gemini)

OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

Anthropic (eg Claude)

IBM (eg Watson)

Microsoft (eg Copilot)

Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

DeepSeek

Amazon

Meta

60

18

13

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026}

Feb 3, 7:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.51%chance

62326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

324

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Will Kalafina appear in Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising?

Dec 9, 7:09 PMFeb 28, 9:59 PM

35.82%chance

7960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

747

Will Naughty Dog release The Last of Us Part III any time soon?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5592

OptionProbability

By 2026 or later

By 2025

Yes, by the end of Q2 2024

Yes, until the end of 2024

66

28

3

3

Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?

Feb 3, 10:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3444

OptionProbability

Dune: Messiah

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Michael

Hexed

Jumanji Next Level

The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Odyssey

The Mandalorian and Grogu

Disclosure Day

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Mega Minions (Minions 3)

Digger

Masters of the Universe

The Great Beyond

The Cat in the Hat

Moana (live action)

Supergirl

Project Hail Mary

Focker-in-Law

Godzilla Minus Zero

Forgotten Island

Verity

Mortal Kombat II

The Social Reckoning

Animal Friends

Street Fighter

Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol

Dog Stars

Hoppers

Flowervale Street

Resident Evil

Scary Movie 6

Insidious: The Bleeding World

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Remain

GOAT

Wuthering Heights

Scream 7

Werwulf

62

54

43

43

43

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

38

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

24

24

24

24

24

24

22

20

17

17

In the "Project Hail Mary" movie, will a Beatles song be played during the scene where the beetles are launched?

May 20, 9:08 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

86.7%chance

13380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

324

36

Will Taylor Swift act in a feature length movie before the end of 2026?

Aug 26, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

More Avatar movies vs more Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T before end of 2030?

Dec 17, 8:20 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6181

OptionProbability

More Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T

More Avatar movies in Top 10 WW A-T

Other

63

28

8

🎬 Which upcoming 98th Oscars Best Picture hopeful will reign in reviews + box office? (Read description)

Sep 29, 1:18 PMMar 15, 10:59 PM

366

OptionProbability

Other

Hamnet

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Frankenstein

A House of Dynamite

49

15

9

9

9

8

Will there be an "Avengers: Secret Wars part 2" movie?

Jan 26, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.45%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the next full-length film featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man be better than I expect it to be?

Feb 11, 1:12 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

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