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Prediction markets for The Movie Performance

Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3610413

OptionProbability

Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

Other

Google (eg Gemini)

OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

Anthropic (eg Claude)

IBM (eg Watson)

Microsoft (eg Copilot)

Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

DeepSeek

Amazon

Meta

60

18

13

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Will Kalafina appear in Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising?

Dec 9, 7:09 PMFeb 28, 9:59 PM

50.73%chance

5607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

985

Will Naughty Dog release The Last of Us Part III any time soon?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5592

OptionProbability

By 2026 or later

By 2025

Yes, by the end of Q2 2024

Yes, until the end of 2024

66

28

3

3

Will Taylor Swift act in a feature length movie before the end of 2026?

Aug 26, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

7360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

In the "Project Hail Mary" movie, will a Beatles song be played during the scene where the beetles are launched?

May 20, 9:08 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

81.38%chance

12330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

274

45

🎬 Which upcoming 98th Oscars Best Picture hopeful will reign in reviews + box office? (Read description)

Sep 29, 1:18 PMMar 15, 10:59 PM

356

OptionProbability

Other

Hamnet

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Frankenstein

A House of Dynamite

43

17

10

10

10

9

Will the next full-length film featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man be better than I expect it to be?

Feb 11, 1:12 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

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