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The National Interest News

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

60%chance

7412984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

817

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.5%chance

469723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6250

160

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

444403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

843

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.33%chance

143045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1405

433

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

9.65%chance

82331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3060

327

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.62%chance

32225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2901

345

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.99%chance

12961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

887

Will 1,3-butanediol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)

Feb 27, 6:03 PMJan 7, 3:59 PM

31.89%chance

10236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

967

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

Will Captopril significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)

Feb 27, 6:10 PMJan 7, 3:59 PM

31.65%chance

1082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

969

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