OptionProbability
Tom Brady is at the game
Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl
Super Bowl is won by a bird team
First score is a field goal
Coin toss is 'heads'
Gatorade shower color is yellow/green
Onside kick attempt
Unauthorized person gets on the field of play
Team has 5+ sacks
Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)
Team will be scoreless for a quarter
Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half
First play from scrimmage is a rush
Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even
Winning margin is 10+ points
Both teams complete their first pass attempt
Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given
Pick 6 occurs
2 point conversion attempted
Player goes into the blue tent
Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)
At least one team has 0 points at halftime
Winning team has more total yards
Any player scores 7+ points individually
Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown
All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)
Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made
Holding call in 4th quarter
A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown
Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions
No rushing touchdowns scored
Any player successfully hurdles a defender
[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]
Opening kickoff result is a touchback
Drake Maye sacked in 4th Quarter
Player knocks non-player over on the sideline
Kick is missed
Head coach throws a challenge flag
Team is a first time super bowl winner
Final score is scorigami
Current or former US President in attendance
Announcer says "tush push"
Score is tied at half-time
Taylor Swift is at the game
Game goes to OT
Failed 4th down attempt
Last play is 'victory formation'
Any player has a 60+ yard reception
Coin toss is 'tails'
A safety is scored
Kick is successfully blocked
Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game
National anthem is over 2 minutes
Special teams touchdown
Successful 2-point conversion
There is a doink
Stadium blackout occurs
Player gets carted off the field
First turnover is an interception
Player gets ejected from the game
Successful 'hail mary' pass is made
Player retires immediately after game
Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct
Backup QB gets put in the game
Points scored in the first 90 seconds
A player's jersey gets torn
Team wins by exactly one point
Player shown eating a snack on the sideline
Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration
Quarterback runs in for a touchdown
50+ yard field goal is made
A player catches the ball with one hand
An administrative timeout is taken
Player crying during national anthem
First score is a touchdown
Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal
Team that scores last wins the game
Score is tied again after 0-0
QB catches a pass from any player
Any player scores 2+ touchdowns
Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback
First drive of game is a '3 and out'
Kicker is iced
Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game
Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl
[LX total score] > [LIX total score]
Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP
Altercation occurs between a player and a coach
Team leading at halftime loses
Broadcast uses video from pylon camera
No penalties in the 4th quarter
Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs
Winning team has more passing yards
Winning team has more turnovers
Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration
Ruling on the field gets overturned by review
Trick play results in positive yardage
Both teams have a 4th quarter lead
Any player to score an octopus
Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game
No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game
Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer
Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given
Chains used to measure first down 1+ times
WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points
Tush Push touchdown is made
50+ yard return
Injury timeout is taken
Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd
Both teams score in 1st quarter
[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]
Super Bowl MVP not from winning team
Announcer says "goat"
Live animal enters the field of play
Unauthorized person touches midfield logo
First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics
Announcer says "stud"
Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl
Super Bowl is canceled, postponed or rescheduled (from 2-8-2026)
Announcer says “hawk-eye”
No touchdowns scored
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
74
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
41000
2439
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
Stays alive
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
new blockade of a country
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
have a journalist arrested
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
Causes Tina Peters' early release
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
ten or more protestors killed during term
pass 500 or more executive orders
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Nominate a family member to high office
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Dep
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Raise the retirement age for social security
stops all sanctions on Russia
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
resume buying oil from Russia
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
force a former president to testify before Congress
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Enact price controls on groceries
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Prosecute someone for flag burning
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Pardon himself
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Get rid of Noaa.
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Says 6 7 (or variant)
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
take control of a part of greenland
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
Pardon a convicted pedophile
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Salute Putin
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Attack a NATO ally.
Pardon p diddy
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
ends black history month
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
declares a white history month
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Announce he’s running for a third term
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
ban trans people from holding federal offices
Implement a federal abortion ban
make statements that are negative about labubu
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Call for the end of the Senate
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
Withdraw from NATO
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
all time high unemployment reached
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
100
100
100
100
100
95
89
88
88
87
84
83
81
76
76
76
75
75
74
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
66
65
63
63
62
62
62
61
60
60
59
59
57
56
55
53
52
50
48
47
46
45
45
45
44
43
42
42
42
42
42
41
41
41
41
40
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
US Dollar (USD)*
Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*
Euro (EUR)*
Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)
Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)
Bitcoin (BTC)*
Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)
Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)
Worldcoin (WLD)*
Gold (Au)
Ethereum (ETH)*
Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)
Paperclips
Manifold Mana
TRUMP
57
31
24
8
8
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
2
2
OptionProbability
President with Green Eyes elected
Crewed mission to Phobos
Room temperature superconductor discovered
USA adds 52nd state
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
UK has a queen again
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
African company or country lands on moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
human dies on the moon
Olympics hosted in Africa
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
End support date for Windows 12
Pickleball in the Olympics
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
The first $10T market cap company
USA Adds 51st state
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Superman enters the public domain
Iceland Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
The version after Windows 12 releases
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Destiny retires from regular streaming
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
1500 Pokemon Released
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
Blood Meridian movie release
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
ChatGPT 7 releases
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
Trump Dies
First Trillionaire (USD)
Human walks on moon again
Chicago ends on Broadway
1300 Pokemon Released
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Half Life 3 releases
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
One piece manga ends
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
ChatGPT 6 releases
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
69
67
66
66
65
63
62
61
61
61
59
59
59
59
58
58
57
54
54
54
52
50
49
47
47
46
45
44
44
42
42
41
41
41
40
40
38
38
38
38
37
36
35
35
35
34
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
17
17
15
15
13
12
12
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
$1 bill
$20 bill
$50 bill
$100 bill
$10 bill
$5 bill
$1 coin
$2 bill
25¢ coin
5¢ coin
10¢ coin
$2 coin
1¢ coin
50¢ coin
$5 coin
$500 bill
$200 bill
$1000 bill
97
97
97
96
95
93
86
82
81
80
80
37
35
29
18
7
6
6
OptionProbability
LINK - Chainlink
XLM - Stellar
Polkadot
TRX - Tron
Shiba Inu
Binance Coin
Dogecoin
Cardano
Solana
Tether USDt
USDC
Ethereum
Ripple
Bitcoin
50
50
48
48
40
32
29
29
23
14
12
11
9
2
OptionProbability
Bitcoin
Other
Ethereum
Solana
Cardano
Binance Coin
XRP
89
9
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
None of the options submitted before the One Piece is revealed
Binks' Sake
Other
A Poneglyph
A single piece of currency (e.g. one coin)
An ancient tool which might not technically be a weapon.
The friends they made along the way
A giant pile of gold and jewels
An ancient weapon
Pineapples
A text, not written on a poneglyph
68
22
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
10202
9802
OptionProbability
Bill
Coin
61
39
OptionProbability
Robinhood (HOOD)
Coinbase (COIN)
56
44
