OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
Causes Tina Peters' early release
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
put his name on a ship in the navy
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
Says 6 7 (or variant)
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
resume buying oil from Russia
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Dep
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
ten or more protestors killed during term
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Raise the retirement age for social security
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
add a new federal holiday in his honor
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardon himself
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Pardon p diddy
Implement a federal abortion ban
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
84
83
82
81
80
80
75
72
72
71
70
69
69
66
64
63
62
62
60
57
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
45
44
44
43
42
42
40
40
39
38
38
36
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
On Earth
Before 2045
Before we have an universal flu vaccine
Before me
Before WW3
In the US
Before we get ASI
After his presidency
Before we get AGI
Natural causes
In the Eastern time zone
When BTC is below $100.000
In a hospital
Closer to Venus than to Mars
When TRUMP Coin is below $1.0
in bed
Surrounded by his friends and loved ones
When BTC is above $80.000
At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)
In his sleep
While he is on a GLP-1
After he announced he is sick
In Florida
Closer to Venus than to the Sun
Before 2030
After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months
Mar-a-Lago
Before potato2017 gets a world record in any competitive achievement leaderboard in the online game tetr.io
In a way that Manifold finds suspicious, according to a Manifold poll
Within 6 months of leaving office
Closer to Mars than to the Sun
While in office
By assassination
In New Jersey
After 2035
While mercury is in retrograde
After 2040
In front of a camera
The White House
On a Sunday
On a Monday
On a Tuesday
On a Wednesday
On a Thursday
On a Friday
On a Saturday
Outside (not in a vehicle or building)
While doing a speech
2030
With a bullet inside his body
2029
During WW3
2031
2032
2033
On an airplane
2035
2037
2034
2035
On TV
2038
Killed because a deal went sideways
2028
2027
2039
After J D Vance dies
2026
In Qatar
While having sex
On a gold toilet
In Russia
He will become effectively immortal
Food poisoning
Before ending World Cup 2026
In Greenland
Q2, 2026
While doing a funny dance
2025
99
97
95
95
94
92
90
80
80
80
79
75
74
68
67
66
62
61
54
51
48
43
42
37
28
28
27
27
27
24
23
20
19
19
18
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
12
11
11
10
10
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
35855
2789
OptionProbability
US Dollar (USD)*
Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*
Euro (EUR)*
British Pound (GBP)*
Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)
Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)
Manifold Mana
Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)
Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)
Bitcoin (BTC)*
Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)
Worldcoin (WLD)*
Gold (Au)
Ethereum (ETH)*
Paperclips
TRUMP
63
31
24
20
9
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
5
4
3
2
OptionProbability
$1 bill
$20 bill
$50 bill
$100 bill
$10 bill
$5 bill
$1 coin
$2 bill
25¢ coin
5¢ coin
10¢ coin
$2 coin
1¢ coin
50¢ coin
$5 coin
$200 bill
$500 bill
$1000 bill
97
97
97
96
95
93
86
81
81
80
80
37
35
29
18
8
7
7
OptionProbability
LINK - Chainlink
XLM - Stellar
Polkadot
TRX - Tron
Shiba Inu
Dogecoin
Binance Coin
Cardano
Solana
Tether USDt
USDC
Ethereum
Ripple
Bitcoin
50
50
48
48
40
29
27
26
23
14
12
11
9
2
OptionProbability
Bitcoin
Other
Ethereum
Solana
Cardano
Binance Coin
XRP
90
8
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
None of the options submitted before the One Piece is revealed
Binks' Sake
Other
A Poneglyph
A single piece of currency (e.g. one coin)
An ancient tool which might not technically be a weapon.
The friends they made along the way
A giant pile of gold and jewels
An ancient weapon
Pineapples
A text, not written on a poneglyph
68
22
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
10202
9802
OptionProbability
Bill
Coin
61
39
OptionProbability
Mutiny
Tribe Switch
Exile Island (temporary)
Double Elimination (the same tribe/group votes two people out on the same day)
Summit (or a Journey with representatives from all tribes)
Contestant eliminated before the first tribal council
Exile Island (permanent)
Final 2
Safety Without Power
First Impressions
Legacy Advantage
Vote Blocker
Vote Steal
Idol Nullifier
Edge of Extinction
An idol that has to be played before the votes are cast
"Losers bracket" (People who have had their torch snuffed have a chance to get back in the game)
Double Duo
One World (two tribes live on the same beach)
50/50 Coin
Joint tribal council (two tribes go to tribal council at the same time and together vote at least one person out)
Juror Removal
Reward Steal
Advantage Amulet
An idol that can be played after the votes are read
67
66
66
65
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
42
42
37
35
35
35
34
OptionVotes
NO
YES
10000
10000
