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Prediction markets for The Offer

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?

May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

82.42%chance

213066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2165

462

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.88%chance

352392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

256

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.89%chance

341434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2250

1738

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2035?

Apr 2, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.01%chance

481129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1468

813

Will McDonald's offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2027?

Sep 1, 4:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.81%chance

131024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

953

Tesla will begin offering a truly driverless taxi service to the general public in at least one city in 2026

Jan 2, 7:45 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

73.03%chance

9969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1645

608

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.14%chance

9767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will White Castle offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.19%chance

15635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

878

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Dec 25, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.47%chance

13216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

970

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

Will White Castle offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2035?

Apr 2, 6:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.67%chance

12107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

968

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