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Top stories

PM Modi Launches Mission Sudarshan Chakra to Protect Civilian Sites as Pakistan Creates Army Rocket Force After May 2025 Conflict

PM Modi Launches Mission Sudarshan Chakra to Protect Civilian Sites as Pakistan Creates Army Rocket Force After May 2025 Conflict

Authors

8

3 days ago

Prediction markets for the Olympiad

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

99%chance

86398803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9602

91

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.76%chance

147124531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14625

9119

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112863

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

99%chance

7537838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12420

212

Which of my 2025 chess goals will i achieve?

Jan 2, 12:37 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

2921730

OptionProbability

Beat a 1900+ rated player

Beat a 2000+ rated player

Play at least 40 FIDE-rated games

Qualify for the national championship

Solve 2000+ puzzles

Have a TPR of 2100+ in a single tournament (at least 4 rounds)

Average TPR of 2000+ for the year

Qualify for the 2026 Olympiad team

Gain 100+ rating points at any point in the year

100

100

94

56

46

36

29

27

25

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.35%chance

6115082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9949

9825

When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?

Apr 7, 9:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3111773

OptionProbability

Before US has the first female president

Before Trump serves time in prison

Before human land on mars

Before human set foot on moon again

Before the end of 2030

Before the end of 2029

Before the end of 2027

Before the end of 2028

Before the end of 2026

Before the end of Dec 2025

Before the end of Jan 2025

Before the end of Feb 2025

Before the end of Mar 2025

Before the end of Apr 2025

Before the end of May 2025

Before the end of Jun 2025

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Oct 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

Before Jimmy Carter pass away

98

98

98

98

94

92

91

91

90

9

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?

May 18, 2:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.32%chance

2410011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2446

409

When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?

Nov 29, 5:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

484858

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2030 or later

2028

2029

2024

30

23

16

16

8

6

1

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.63%chance

252784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

935

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Apr 2, 4:16 AMMar 2, 11:59 PM

191701

OptionProbability

International Mathematical Olympiad

International Olympiad in Informatics

International Astronomy Olympiad

International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics

International Biology Olympiad

International Physics Olympiad

International Earth Science Olympiad

International Chemistry Olympiad

100

100

51

47

43

36

36

28

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.11%chance

9884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

364

103

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