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Top stories

PM Modi Launches Mission Sudarshan Chakra to Protect Civilian Sites as Pakistan Creates Army Rocket Force After May 2025 Conflict

PM Modi Launches Mission Sudarshan Chakra to Protect Civilian Sites as Pakistan Creates Army Rocket Force After May 2025 Conflict

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for the Olympiad

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87154421

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2028-2029

2025-2026

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

44

35

10

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?

Apr 7, 9:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3314966

OptionProbability

Before Trump serves time in prison

Before human land on mars

Before US has the first female president

Before the end of 2027

Before the end of 2028

Before the end of 2026

Before the end of 2029

Before the end of 2030

Before human set foot on moon again

Before the end of Dec 2025

Before the end of Jan 2025

Before the end of Feb 2025

Before the end of Mar 2025

Before the end of Apr 2025

Before the end of May 2025

Before the end of Jun 2025

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Oct 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Before the end of Dec 2024

Before Jimmy Carter pass away

79

42

36

6

6

5

5

5

5

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player

Feb 24, 3:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

184613

OptionProbability

Other

Math Olympiad or related major Math competitions

League of Legends

Shogi

Bridge

Chess

Settlers of Catan

Magic the Gathering

Age of Empires 2

Geoguessr

Scrabble

Diplomacy (with press)

90

7

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?

Mar 4, 1:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.56%chance

334011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

672

What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?

Dec 15, 2:56 AMDec 29, 5:59 AM

203945

OptionProbability

Geometry

Algebra

Combinatorics

Number Theory

99

1

0

0

How many problems of my JMO mock will be solved by EOY 2026

Apr 3, 2:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

263000

OptionProbability

2

3

0

1

89

10

1

1

Will Century High School (MN) qualify for Science Olympiad Nationals in 2027?

Mar 17, 3:08 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

12%chance

172990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?

Nov 27, 6:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3%chance

122923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

757

15

Will I ever make IMO?

Jun 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.53%chance

231853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1808

569

Will the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad) be held in this country?

Jul 23, 12:49 AMJul 23, 12:41 AM

9754

OptionProbability

IMO 2027 held in Hungary

IMO 2028 held in Saudi Arabia

IMO 2029 held in Mongolia

IMO 2030 held in Switzerland

IMO 2031 held in USA

98

92

90

90

85

Will "That Mad Olympiad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 17, 4:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.7%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

984

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