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Prediction markets for The Open

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112101

Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

Mar 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

68.21%chance

12029657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

85.8%chance

949754

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2254

105

Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 12:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

586279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1629

Will the first openly LGBTQIA+ SCOTUS Justice be appointed before 2040?

Jul 3, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.13%chance

181101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

714

Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?

Jul 28, 4:00 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

36.32%chance

11935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

755

Will a US Governor, Senator, President, or VP be in a open polyamourous relationship without scandal by the end of 2039?

Sep 19, 11:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.82%chance

20709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

901

Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025

Feb 17, 12:31 AMDec 31, 1:00 AM

47%chance

7471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.64%chance

8467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

740

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

41.04%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will tech bros turn the US into an open oligarchy / plutocracy?

Jan 19, 5:56 PMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

51.98%chance

4161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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