The Optimist News

YES

15-Minute Cities

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Decolonization

Multipolarity / Multipolar World

Transhumanism

Nuance

Academic freedom

Stakeholder-Capitalism

Techno-optimist

Consent-Based Policing / Peelian Principles

Love

Civilian Casualties / Protection of Civilians Mandate

Investigative journalism

Direct democracy

Peacebuilding

AI Alignment

Human rights

Freedom

Experience

Relationship Anarchy

#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES

Number Go Up (Zeke Faux)

The Big Short (Michael Lewis)

Superforecasting (Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock) - @JeromeHPowell

Our Mathematical Universe (Max Tegmark) - @TheAllMemeingEye

Sapiens (Yuval Noah Harari) - @TheAllMemeingEye

Permanent Record (Edward Snowden) - @JeromeHPowell

Red Heart (by @MaxHarms)

Superintelligence (Nick Bostrom) - @TheAllMemeingEye

The Optimist (Keach Hagey)

On the Edge (Nate Silver)

The Age of Em (@RobinHanson)

Animal Liberation (Now) (Peter Singer) - @TheAllMemeingEye

80,000 Hours (Benjamin Todd)

YES

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.