The Origin AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

34977

14290

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

YES

2292

1619

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

22.64%chance

13456982

OptionVotes

YES

1580

1577

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

7.02%chance

9812873

OptionVotes

YES

3833

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.82%chance

5110184

OptionVotes

YES

1050

912

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Apr 6, 2:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

68.09%chance

806194

OptionVotes

YES

236

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?

Jan 3, 9:15 AMDec 28, 9:59 PM

71.9%chance

341556

OptionVotes

YES

624

130

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

1814

885

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

YES

1097

737

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Mar 18, 2:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15784

OptionProbability

Singularity

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 3 movies are publicly available

At least 100 AI-generated original movies, more than 2 hours long, are publicly available and watched by 100k people each

A studio quality 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover exists

Studio-quality AI-generated remakes of at least 100 movies are publicly available

A 120 minute Star Trek/Star Wars crossover exists and has Imdb score >=6

Netflix stock price lower than $50 or higher than $5,000

AI generated remakes of at least 100 cinematic movies are publicly available and watched by at least 100k people each

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?

Jan 3, 4:20 PMDec 28, 9:59 PM

83.74%chance

11352

OptionVotes

YES

380

149

From which country will originate the AI that first passes Manifold AI's high quality Turing Test?

Aug 28, 6:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8282

OptionProbability

United States

China

France

United Kingdom

Other

The Origin AI News

Prediction markets for The Origin AI

Prediction markets for The Origin AI

Prediction markets for The Origin AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

If the big 2028 AI Movie market resolves YES, which of the following will be true 3 months later?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?

From which country will originate the AI that first passes Manifold AI's high quality Turing Test?

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