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Prediction markets for The Paper

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

3.29%chance

13998817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35597

525

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

47789897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7410

4932

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.27%chance

706096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

426

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

17.59%chance

172707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2165

462

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 4:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.59%chance

382199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1424

629

Will there be a research paper that uses Manifold data and has 100 Google Scholar citations by the end of 2025?

Mar 1, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.55%chance

201635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

267

If OpenAI makes a transformer sized advancement in the next 5 years, will they publish an accompanying paper?

Nov 29, 12:12 AMDec 6, 7:59 AM

44.58%chance

20888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

927

Major blunder in a physics paper attributed to AI by the end of 2025

Aug 29, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.23%chance

26855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

917

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2030

May 5, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.23%chance

16564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

915

Will a currently-published paper on autogynephilia be retracted by the end of 2028?

May 19, 2:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.98%chance

16537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

979

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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