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Prediction markets for The Prisoner

Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term?

Jan 7, 3:26 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.48%chance

7029262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6268

160

Will any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 14, 6:11 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

13.74%chance

196063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2506

399

Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a JAIL Cell? (Not a prison cell)

Aug 15, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.71%chance

315781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2665

416

Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a PRISON Cell? (Not a jail cell)

Aug 15, 11:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.74%chance

265458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2521

505

Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?

Jun 10, 8:53 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

4.89%chance

404849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4584

382

Will Roger Ver go to prison again before the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 6:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.38%chance

22550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3542

282

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.48%chance

41926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7792

5300

Will Logan Paul spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?

Dec 29, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.33%chance

221689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

897

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

62.15%chance

1719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

780

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

Will the first mission of Grand Theft Auto 6 take place in a prison?

Dec 5, 11:08 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

35.61%chance

23534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

791

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