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Prediction markets for The Prisoner

Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term?

Jan 7, 3:26 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

7.86%chance

6726779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3424

292

Is at least one of the stories about an innocent person deported by the US to prison in El Salvador substantially true?

Mar 29, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.63%chance

2318382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8486

118

Will any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 14, 6:11 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

13.68%chance

186062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2512

398

Will Ross Ulbricht Be On The Joe Rogan Podcast Within 1 Year Of Release From Prison?

Jan 22, 1:00 PMJan 22, 4:40 AM

7.38%chance

195237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3543

282

Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?

Jun 10, 8:53 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

384786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4515

385

Will Roger Ver go to prison again before the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 6:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.58%chance

12500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3492

286

Will Logan Paul spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?

Dec 29, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.08%chance

201434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

981

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

20.45%chance

31361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4257

2428

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

1500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Will the first mission of Grand Theft Auto 6 take place in a prison?

Dec 5, 11:08 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

40.61%chance

23398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

875

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