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Prediction markets for The Prisoner

Is at least one of the stories about an innocent person deported by the US to prison in El Salvador substantially true?

Mar 29, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.63%chance

2318382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8486

118

Will any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 14, 6:11 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

13.68%chance

186062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2512

398

Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?

Jun 10, 8:53 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

6.05%chance

384256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3985

416

Will Ross Ulbricht Be On The Joe Rogan Podcast Within 1 Year Of Release From Prison?

Jan 22, 1:00 PMJan 22, 4:40 AM

81.46%chance

171803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2096

477

Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a JAIL Cell? (Not a prison cell)

Aug 15, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.38%chance

291697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1649

626

Will Logan Paul spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?

Dec 29, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.08%chance

201434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

981

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

21.91%chance

31111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

2495

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

1500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Will the first mission of Grand Theft Auto 6 take place in a prison?

Dec 5, 11:08 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

42.59%chance

22348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

909

Will Roger Ver go to prison again before the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 6:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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