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Prediction markets for The Process

Will the Apple Vision Pro 2 require the customer to pick it up from the Apple store / have an in-store fitting process?

Jan 18, 5:25 PMDec 25, 11:59 PM

5%chance

121437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1629

896

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.28%chance

19918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1183

828

Will total processed tokens by Open Router LLMs exceed 10 trillion in any single week by the end of 2025

Feb 17, 12:31 AMDec 31, 1:00 AM

47%chance

7471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will legislation be passed into law that lays out process for enforcing 14th amendment during the 119th congress?

Mar 23, 3:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.55%chance

10355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

132

Will a therapy that significantly slows or reversed the aging process in domestic animals be developed before 2030?

Apr 5, 4:57 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

68.31%chance

10252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

53

What will be the next country to formally begin the process of joining NATO?

Feb 21, 1:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10197

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Serbia

Moldova

Other

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Austria

Georgia

22

21

18

16

9

8

7

By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing?

Nov 23, 8:18 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

74.8%chance

7165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

78

Will "The impossible problem of due process" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 22, 1:12 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.78%chance

2116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

521

Will Israel's process of judicial review be reformed during the current Knesset term?

Aug 7, 1:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.79%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

41

What process node will AMD use for the Zen 6 desktop CPU cores?

Jun 24, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

261

OptionProbability

TSMC N4

TSMC N4X

TSMC N3

TSMC N3E

TSMC N3P

TSMC N3X

TSMC N2

TSMC N2P

TSMC N2X

Other

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

9

Will an African nation successfully win the bid process to host a Summer/Winter Olympics before EOY 2035?

Dec 3, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.54%chance

527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

104

Will AI figure out who has the highest processing speed to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.04%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

72

68

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