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Prediction markets for The Regime

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.28%chance

9653736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18814

1115

Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?

Jan 10, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9647160

OptionProbability

No strikes, regime stays

No strikes, regime falls

Strikes, regime stays

Strikes, regime falls

94

6

0

0

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.34%chance

344924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

892

If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.92%chance

634695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

25

If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Feb 17, 10:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.92%chance

322579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

25

How will the United States be classed by Regimes of the World in 2026?

Nov 20, 9:06 PMMar 17, 11:14 PM

111667

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

90

8

1

0

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2028?

Nov 18, 7:11 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

9938

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

77

20

1

1

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2027?

Nov 18, 7:11 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

4792

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

80

19

1

1

How will the United States be classed by Regimes of the World in 2028?

Nov 20, 9:06 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

4673

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

66

29

4

1

Manifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury

Apr 8, 1:46 AMMar 1, 2:43 AM

6620

OptionProbability

Stronger

Weaker

About the same

50

29

21

When will the first company be officially registered under the EU Inc. framework (28th Regime)?

Dec 16, 10:17 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3160

OptionProbability

Proposal rejected/not introduced in EU parliament by 2028

2026

2025

2027

2028

25

20

18

18

18

Will "Why AI Evaluation Regimes are bad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 10:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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