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Prediction markets for The Regime

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

9758226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23187

881

Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?

Jan 10, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9647666

OptionProbability

No strikes, regime stays

No strikes, regime falls

Strikes, regime stays

Strikes, regime falls

94

6

0

0

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.34%chance

344924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

892

If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.53%chance

454297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

459

22

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2026?

Oct 23, 1:55 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

142700

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

79

21

0

0

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

77.84%chance

341266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2028?

Nov 18, 7:11 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

9938

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

77

20

1

1

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2027?

Nov 18, 7:11 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

4792

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

80

19

1

1

What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Labour?

Sep 17, 12:02 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1200

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Closed autocracy

Electoral autocracy

45

45

5

5

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will the world become a global far-right dictatorship regime before 2100?

Sep 16, 5:49 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM

16.81%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

77

Will "Why AI Evaluation Regimes are bad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 10:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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