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Prediction markets for The Regime

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.01%chance

324918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

887

Will North Korea announce a formal regime succession plan by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 4:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.84%chance

242649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

685

How will the United States be classed by Regimes of the World in 2025?

Nov 20, 9:06 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

142122

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

56

40

3

1

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2028?

Nov 18, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8928

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

74

24

2

1

Will the Syrian civil war continue (for more than 6 months) after the Assad regime falls?

Dec 8, 3:33 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

21801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2025?

Oct 23, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4785

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

60

39

0

0

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2027?

Nov 18, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4742

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

56

42

1

1

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2026?

Oct 23, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6654

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

57

41

1

1

Will there be "compulsory genital inspection regime" in the USA by the end of Trump's term?

Jan 22, 1:22 PMJan 30, 10:59 PM

11.43%chance

19519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

36

How will the United States be classed by Regimes of the World in 2027?

Nov 20, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3508

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

59

32

8

2

Will "Liability regimes for AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 2:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.43%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

968

How will Malaysia be classed by Regimes of the World in 2025?

Nov 14, 7:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2200

OptionProbability

Electoral autocracy

Electoral democracy

Closed autocracy

Liberal democracy

54

37

5

4

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