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Prediction markets for The Regime

Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?

Jan 10, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9646035

OptionProbability

No strikes, regime stays

No strikes, regime falls

Strikes, regime stays

Strikes, regime falls

93

7

0

0

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.06%chance

9039266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17739

1192

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Mar 2, 6:03 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

2.29%chance

2314689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7310

237

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.11%chance

334920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.1%chance

614367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

392

25

If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.1%chance

433056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

392

25

How will the United States be classed by Regimes of the World in 2026?

Nov 20, 9:06 PMMar 17, 11:14 PM

111667

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

90

8

1

0

A U.S. ground invasion of Iran is expected before July 1st, 2026, along with the fall of the Iranian regime.

Apr 25, 5:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.91%chance

201444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

716

14

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

75.9%chance

341256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

Will the Iranian regime survive the date it predicted for Israel's destruction?

Oct 6, 12:43 PMSep 9, 8:59 PM

40%chance

10354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

82

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will "Why AI Evaluation Regimes are bad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 10:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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