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Prediction markets for The Regime

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.94%chance

8832613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12428

1782

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Mar 2, 6:03 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

3.5%chance

179859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5670

285

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.07%chance

334919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

888

If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.05%chance

583619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

How will the United Kingdom be classed by Regimes of the World in 2026?

Oct 23, 1:55 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

142700

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

79

21

0

0

If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?

Jan 15, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.05%chance

412189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

3.58%chance

361896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

519

19

How will the United States be classed by Regimes of the World in 2026?

Nov 20, 9:06 PMMar 17, 11:14 PM

111606

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

92

5

3

0

How will the United States be classed by Regimes of the World in 2027?

Nov 20, 9:06 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

3563

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Electoral autocracy

Closed autocracy

74

21

4

1

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17505

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

83

12

2

2

Manifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury

Apr 8, 1:46 AMMar 1, 2:43 AM

4500

OptionProbability

Stronger

Weaker

About the same

43

33

23

When will the first company be officially registered under the EU Inc. framework (28th Regime)?

Dec 16, 10:17 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3160

OptionProbability

Proposal rejected/not introduced in EU parliament by 2028

2026

2025

2027

2028

25

20

18

18

18

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