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Prediction markets for The Residence

Will Saudi Arabia’s NEOM project The Line reach its goal of 1 million residents by 2030?

Aug 13, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.26%chance

242153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2034

876

Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, a resident of the state of Georgia?

Dec 6, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.69%chance

91311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

602

17

How many people will be permanently residing in the "libertarian city" Prospera in Honduras by the end of 2029?

Aug 8, 10:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10811

OptionProbability

100+

0-50

51-100

95

3

2

Will speaking English become a legal requirement for permanent residency in the UK before 2027?

Jul 21, 9:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.3%chance

5226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Will Spain approve a tax on properties bought by non-EU residents during the current Sánchez legislature?

Jan 15, 5:27 PMFeb 1, 1:00 AM

66.22%chance

3138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will my spouse match Urology in the 2026 Residency match?

Oct 6, 3:50 PMFeb 9, 7:59 AM

64.73%chance

5112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

972

Will "Open Source Sparse Autoencoders for all Resid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 2:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11%chance

127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

96

Will a state in the USA ban Airbnb outright for all residences by the end of 2025?

Jun 21, 7:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

86

Will the Kentish plover, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2050?

Nov 2, 3:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

47

Will the black crowned night heron, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2040?

Nov 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Yes

No

58

42

Will the red backed shrike be a “ reintroduced” or “ resident” breeder in the UK by 2050?

Nov 2, 3:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

17

OptionVotes

NO

YES

82

69

Will the Eurasian Wryneck be a “ reintroduced” or “ resident” breeder in the UK by 2050?

Nov 2, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

55

55

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