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The Revenant News

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

159662447

OptionProbability

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Other

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Selling data / API access / colocation

Interest on held cash

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

35

28

14

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51137099

OptionProbability

>$25B

$20.1-25B

$12.6-15B

$15.1-17.5B

$17.6-20B

<$5B

$5-10B

$10.1-12.5B

93

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.42%chance

16221107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7672

416

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.31%chance

296967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

755

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.73%chance

151382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

947

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Iphone is no longer apples dominant product line in terms of revenue by the end of this decade?

Sep 6, 10:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.93%chance

15702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

838

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4071

3711

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce at least $500,000 in revenue?

Sep 21, 6:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.73%chance

5175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

Would over 20% of global fashion revenue come from virtual cosmetics by 2030?

Jun 29, 10:38 PMJan 7, 5:59 AM

43.13%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

871

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