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The Revenant News

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

127565977

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

34

32

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4070676

OptionProbability

>$25B

$20.1-25B

$17.6-20B

$15.1-17.5B

<$5B

$5-10B

$10.1-12.5B

$12.6-15B

84

7

3

2

1

1

1

1

Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025?

Jan 12, 7:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

99%chance

11644849

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14494

484

Will OpenAI have $2 billion annual revenue in 2025?

Oct 12, 10:52 PMMar 2, 5:59 AM

98%chance

2334678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8394

379

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

15516604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3865

859

OpenAI 2028 revenue at $3T+

Apr 7, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.21%chance

294340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2681

373

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Dec 18, 2:07 PMNov 30, 12:00 PM

31.72%chance

193088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3388

1694

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $100K in revenue?

May 6, 4:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.2%chance

28925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

654

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4071

3711

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

May 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

901

Floors For Less achieves 20% revenue growth by October 14, 2025

Jul 16, 5:14 AMOct 14, 12:00 AM

49.95%chance

219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

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