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Prediction markets for The Running Man

When will Manifold run out of money?

Apr 3, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

367644

OptionProbability

Not before 2026

Jan-Mar 2025

Apr-Jun 2025

Jul-Sep 2025

Oct-Dec 2025

In 2024

95

1

1

1

1

0

How many Home Runs will Shohei Ohtani hit in the 2025 MLB regular season?

Nov 3, 2:07 PMOct 10, 1:29 PM

226685

OptionProbability

At least 10

At least 20

At least 25

At least 30

At least 35

At least 40

At least 45

At least 50

At least 55

At least 60

100

100

100

100

100

92

82

67

39

28

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Nov 17, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

16.55%chance

343068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

704

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

Sep 24, 11:52 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

45.19%chance

252473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

1335

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

22432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

If Trump tries to run for a third term, how many Supreme Court Justices support him?

Mar 31, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

202250

300M subsidy: Will there be a bank run on manifold (within 12 months of cash payouts starting)?

Apr 23, 5:01 AMSep 18, 1:59 PM

6.72%chance

161744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1757

361

How many home runs will Tommy Edman hit in the 2025 MLB regular season?

Apr 5, 1:48 PMOct 9, 11:59 PM

91659

OptionProbability

At least 6 (what he hit in 2024)

At least 11 (what he hit in 2019 and 2021)

At least 13 (what he hit in 2023 and 2022)

At least 20

At least 25

At least 30

At least 35

At least 40

At least 45

At least 50

100

99

94

69

42

24

14

10

9

8

How many test runs will Steve Smith make before he retires?

Oct 10, 4:11 AMNov 11, 1:59 PM

4724

OptionProbability

10,000-12,000

12,000-14,000

14,000-16,000

16,000+

Less than 10,000

56

37

4

2

1

How many seasons will Severance run for?

Mar 31, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

4

3

5

6

Other

32

28

13

13

13

How many seasons will NCIS run for?

Aug 2, 8:45 PMAug 3, 8:44 PM

110

Will On Cinema at the Cinema still be running when the One Piece manga ends?

Feb 22, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.78%chance

23

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

89

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