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Prediction markets for The Showcase

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.76%chance

10518956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15777

4360

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.44%chance

5217397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

871

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.12%chance

5512961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

621

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

213692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

161987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

871

Will OpenAI demo a desktop or browser assistant that automates white-collar tasks before 2026?

Mar 28, 9:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.64%chance

391771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1353

824

Chinese military parade on September 3, 2025, features marching humanoid robots

Jul 25, 5:57 PMSep 4, 11:59 PM

29.72%chance

151064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

Will there be a "low scorigami" before 2030?

Sep 22, 9:39 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

42.77%chance

21527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

936

Will a robot be capable of sculpting marble at the level of world-class sculptors before 2040?

Apr 21, 9:09 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

61.91%chance

11324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

962

What smart humanoid bots' capabilities will be showcased in videos by 2030?

Apr 1, 7:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7258

OptionProbability

Executes a synchronized dance routine.

Completes an agility obstacle course within a set time.

Solves a Rubik's Cube in under 30 seconds.

Shoots and scores from the free-throw line.

Drives a car.

Hits a dartboard bullseye.

Performs CPR on a mannequin/human.

Prepares a gourmet dish.

Replicates a complex origami figure.

Kill a human

Plays a specific song on an instrument accurately after one listening.

Assembles a furniture that hadn't seen, by reading the manual.

Executes an Olympic-standard perfect dive.

87

73

70

68

66

61

55

54

50

50

46

46

34

Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?

Feb 9, 2:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

13209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

966

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