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Prediction markets for The Simulation

Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?

Jun 29, 5:55 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

14.66%chance

233930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2413

414

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.98%chance

91594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

Will we have proof that we live in a simulation in the next three years? (before 2028)

Feb 21, 10:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.59%chance

231299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

959

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

577

Before 2030, will anyone in the US be convicted solely for possession of simulated child pornography?

Jan 12, 10:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24%chance

11275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

401

290

Conditional on the world being a simulation, what is the probability that you're the only conscious entity in it?

Jul 21, 5:03 PMFeb 2, 8:02 PM

17.76%chance

11275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

943

Will simulation theory become the world's #1 religion before 2050?

Apr 28, 6:48 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.21%chance

8272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

407

148

Will "the beatles" tour again including VR/AR/AI/other simulated members?

Nov 20, 3:25 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

13.42%chance

8263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

138

Will the technological singularity occur before Yandere Simulator is finished?

Jun 6, 2:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

62.81%chance

7262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation?

Sep 2, 9:22 PMJan 10, 5:59 AM

68%chance

7139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

107

Will "Simulating the rest of the political disagr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 6, 5:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.01%chance

3125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

988

Will the simulation theory ever be validated?

Dec 16, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

25

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

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