The Six News

IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 11 politicians will keep power longer? The next five "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

Jan 8, 5:27 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

287610

OptionProbability

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

1486

673

Who will win the 2026 Six Nations?

Jan 13, 4:29 AMMar 15, 12:00 AM

9884

OptionProbability

France

England

Ireland

Italy

Scotland

Wales

Who will win the 2026 Six Nations Triple Crown?

Jan 13, 4:32 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

6623

OptionProbability

England

Ireland

None

Scotland

Wales

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

13617

OptionVotes

YES

1297

922

Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?

Feb 26, 9:47 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15432

OptionProbability

Human spends six months on the Moon

Human lands on Mars

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

1237

921

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Apr 21, 10:01 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

24.11%chance

8290

OptionVotes

YES

323

192

Which markets will close during the six months prior to the next nuclear attack?

Dec 2, 4:10 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

2110

OptionProbability

Other

Nuclear doomsday clock: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow-267cd4b639d9--cash

Will the 2026 Men's Six Nations Champion win the Grand Slam?

Jan 13, 3:50 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

49.55%chance

462

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will the set of teams in the Six Nations change by 2030?

Sep 26, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

60.07%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for The Six

Prediction markets for The Six

IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 11 politicians will keep power longer? The next five "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Who will win the 2026 Six Nations?

Who will win the 2026 Six Nations Triple Crown?

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Which markets will close during the six months *prior to* the next nuclear attack?

Will the 2026 Men's Six Nations Champion win the Grand Slam?

Will the set of teams in the Six Nations change by 2030?

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

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Which markets will close during the six months prior to the next nuclear attack?