The Six News

IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 10 politicians will keep power longer? The next four "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

Jan 8, 5:27 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

349577

OptionProbability

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

1486

673

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Dec 5, 6:10 AMDec 13, 5:59 AM

15.82%chance

13617

OptionVotes

YES

1297

922

Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?

Feb 26, 9:47 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15440

OptionProbability

Human spends six months on the Moon

Human lands on Mars

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

1237

921

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Apr 21, 10:01 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

24.11%chance

8290

OptionVotes

YES

323

192

Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?

Jul 18, 1:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.78%chance

10249

OptionVotes

YES

149

138

Which of the six mission themes will NASA's New Frontiers Five mission be selected from?

Apr 1, 6:31 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

2147

OptionProbability

Saturn Atmospheric Probe

Comet Surface Sample Return

Io Observer

Lunar Geophysical Network

Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return

Enceladus Exploration

Which markets will close during the six months prior to the next nuclear attack?

Dec 2, 4:10 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

2110

OptionProbability

Other

Nuclear doomsday clock: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow-267cd4b639d9--cash

Aella will live outside the US for at least six months through 2030

Aug 24, 5:08 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM

35.04%chance

796

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will the set of teams in the Six Nations change by 2030?

Sep 26, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

47.89%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

103

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for The Six

IRON MEN: Which 6 of these 10 politicians will keep power longer? The next four "out" go to 0%, remaining six go to 100%

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Will the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 6 release within six months of the console version?

Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the first six missions to land on mars?

Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?

Which of the six mission themes will NASA's New Frontiers Five mission be selected from?

Which markets will close during the six months *prior to* the next nuclear attack?

Aella will live outside the US for at least six months through 2030

Will the set of teams in the Six Nations change by 2030?

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

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Which markets will close during the six months prior to the next nuclear attack?