The Social Network News

If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

May 30, 8:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2411343

OptionProbability

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.

The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.

A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.

This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration

Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.

Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.

Constitutions play a critical role in the frontier methods for aligning AI.

A good AI should not kill people.

There would be a dramatic positive change in the world if teenagers and homeless folks could earn crypto on an app they download for free to argue philosophy with an AI until they can either prove the AI is right or prove it is wrong.

Philosophy is primarily the pursuit of defining language.

A duty to reason is the foundation for goodness.

I have free will.

A good AI should not infringe on the rights, autonomy or property of humans.

We should stop doing massive training runs.

The evolutionary environment contains perverse incentives that have led to substantial false consciousness in humans

Induction is not justified.

A good AI, by design, requires large scale human participation to grow.

A good AI requires large scale humanity verification before it accepts new data as true.

The principle of uniformity in nature is self evident or justified by self evident facts.

God exists.

AI should not create novel content.

The quality of mercy is not strained...

Vriska did nothing wrong.

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Feb 2, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.8%chance

2910126

OptionVotes

YES

3124

684

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

1069

933

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

900

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Mar 14, 2:50 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26%chance

191737

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?

Dec 6, 3:48 AMDec 6, 4:00 AM

30.92%chance

181280

OptionVotes

YES

1341

717

Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

Jul 28, 5:35 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22802

OptionProbability

YouTube

Instagram

TikTok

WeChat

Other

Will the social network 2 release by the end of 2027?

Jun 25, 9:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.71%chance

5442

OptionVotes

YES

472

In which year will there be a social network with more active users than Facebook?

Jul 28, 5:30 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.01%chance

7268

OptionProbability

YES

352

213

Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028?

Mar 14, 4:37 PMMar 22, 3:59 AM

41.45%chance

10236

OptionVotes

YES

1002

989

Will the Bonfire social network project surmount its performance problems before it's too late?

Jan 9, 11:30 PMApr 1, 10:59 AM

53.89%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

Is the Cheegar constant for Kenneth Shinozuka's social network lower than that of Jacob Cole's social network?

Jul 24, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

The Social Network News

Prediction markets for The Social Network

Prediction markets for The Social Network

Prediction markets for The Social Network

If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?

Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

Will the social network 2 release by the end of 2027?

In which year will there be a social network with more active users than Facebook?

Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028?

Will the Bonfire social network project surmount its performance problems before it's too late?

Is the Cheegar constant for Kenneth Shinozuka's social network lower than that of Jacob Cole's social network?

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