The Substance News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49%chance

19129348

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

When will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act?

Jan 14, 11:51 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

258545

OptionProbability

2025 - Jan 31, 2029

Not before Feb 1st 2029

2025

2024

Will marijuana cease to be classified as a Schedule 1 drug under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act by January 1, 2030?

Jul 24, 9:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.78%chance

877949

OptionVotes

YES

1962

844

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

7748

3856

What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?

Feb 2, 5:10 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

574807

OptionProbability

It won’t happen by the end of 2025

The IOC and/or US Olympic committee will threaten participation bans against anyone participating in the Enhanced Games

Participants from 10 or more countries will enter the Games

It will run over budget

A woman will break a formal world record previously held by a man, for any amount of time

There will be a restriction on political speech by participants and/or their teams by the Games

Athletes from the United States will win the most events

Some enhancing substance or surgery will be banned by the Games (not just by law)

A country will ban or restrict participation in the Enhanced Games

Dana White will attend the Enhanced Games

A Fortune 100 company or brand will sponsor the Enhanced Games

Swimming, gymnastics, weightlifting, track and field, and combat will be the ONLY event categories

Watching the Games online will be officially free in the United States (with or without ads)

There will be a protest of 1000+ people outside of the of the event for at least 1 hour, on one day

It will turn a profit

It will be a culture war adjacent topic

A prominent financial backer will bail out of the project before the Games

50 or more formal world records will be broken

Participants from 25 or more countries will enter the Games

A nation's prime minister, president, monarch, or other world leader will attend the Enhanced Games

Athletes from Russia will win the most events

Athletes from China will win the most events

10 or more formal world records will be broken

An athlete will become paralyzed, braindead, or otherwise severely disabled (but not killed) during training or competition for the Games

Someone will run the 100 meter dash faster than 9.58 seconds

A leg is lost (whatever that means)

Someone will die while competing, or up to 24 hours after competing

Athletes from India will win the most events

Politically left people will be more likely to support it

The Enhanced Games will start and finish before the end of Q3 2025

100

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

YES

1528

654

If the Republican candidate for president loses in 2028, will they deny the election result?

Mar 2, 7:55 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

65.37%chance

353205

OptionVotes

YES

1374

728

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

1483

783

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Jan 20, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51%chance

72345

OptionVotes

YES

1261

257

Will Estrogen become a scheduled substance in the US by the end of 2028?

Nov 10, 4:03 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

24.26%chance

91302

OptionVotes

YES

1767

566

Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

Oct 17, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.7%chance

181006

OptionVotes

YES

1378

363

🧑‍⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 2, 6:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15682

OptionProbability

Possession of a controlled substance

Tax Evasion

Murder 1st degree

Extortion

Money Laundering

Public Intoxication

Forgery

Insider trading (on real financial markets)

Unauthorized practice of law

Child pornography possession

Kidnapping

Perjury

Embezzlement

Cruelty to animals

Unlicensed practice of medicine

Rape

Hate Crimes (USA)

Blackmail

Burglary

Murder 2nd degree

Grand Theft Auto

Arson

Manslaugher

Racketeering

Treason

The Substance News

Prediction markets for The Substance

Prediction markets for The Substance

Prediction markets for The Substance

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

When will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act?

Will marijuana cease to be classified as a Schedule 1 drug under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act by January 1, 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

If the Republican candidate for president loses in 2028, will they deny the election result?

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Will Estrogen become a scheduled substance in the US by the end of 2028?

Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

🧑‍⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

Latest stories