The Substance News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.67%chance

20440015

OptionVotes

YES

1208

828

When will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act?

Jan 14, 11:51 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

268947

OptionProbability

2025 - Jan 31, 2029

Not before Feb 1st 2029

2025

2024

Will marijuana cease to be classified as a Schedule 1 drug under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act by January 1, 2030?

Jul 24, 9:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91.33%chance

888059

OptionVotes

YES

2072

834

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

327878

OptionVotes

YES

8632

3470

Will Estrogen become a scheduled substance in the US by the end of 2028?

Nov 10, 4:03 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.36%chance

132936

OptionVotes

YES

2941

340

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

1483

783

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Jan 20, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.07%chance

82361

OptionVotes

YES

1268

249

Will Pogacar or Vingegaard test positive for a banned substance in 2026?

Jul 20, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111943

OptionProbability

Neither

Only Pogacar

Only Vingegaard

Both

What will I be diagnosed with?

Apr 28, 10:16 AMOct 22, 9:20 AM

221618

OptionProbability

Autism

ADHD

Attachment Disorder

Dysthymia

C-PDSD

Personality Disorder

Intellectual giftedness (130+ IQ)

Substance Use Disorder

Bipolar Disorder

Long COVID

100

Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

Oct 17, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.99%chance

221567

OptionVotes

YES

1241

494

🧑‍⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 2, 6:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15682

OptionProbability

Possession of a controlled substance

Tax Evasion

Murder 1st degree

Extortion

Money Laundering

Public Intoxication

Forgery

Insider trading (on real financial markets)

Unauthorized practice of law

Child pornography possession

Kidnapping

Perjury

Embezzlement

Cruelty to animals

Unlicensed practice of medicine

Rape

Hate Crimes (USA)

Blackmail

Burglary

Murder 2nd degree

Grand Theft Auto

Arson

Manslaugher

Racketeering

Treason

‘DSA’ White Powder Letter MegaMarket (add answers)

Oct 17, 6:43 AMOct 24, 6:40 AM

7102

OptionProbability

Powder is a non-toxic substance

Perpetrator had no affiliation with dsa(resolves when obvious)

Perpetrator has no affiliation with DSA (resolves best evidence 1 Jan 2027)

Perpetrator had no affiliation with DSA (resolves best evidence 1 Nov 2026)

Perpetrator is a supporter of Trump

The white powder is flour or part flour

Anyone in jail or custody because of it before 1 Jan 2027

The Substance News

Prediction markets for The Substance

Prediction markets for The Substance

Prediction markets for The Substance

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

When will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act?

Will marijuana cease to be classified as a Schedule 1 drug under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act by January 1, 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Will Estrogen become a scheduled substance in the US by the end of 2028?

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Will Pogacar or Vingegaard test positive for a banned substance in 2026?

What will I be diagnosed with?

Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

🧑‍⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

‘DSA’ White Powder Letter MegaMarket (add answers)

Latest stories