The Substance News

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.08%chance

18928440

OptionVotes

YES

1019

982

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

7748

3856

When will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act?

Jan 14, 11:51 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

196319

OptionProbability

Not before Feb 1st 2029

2025 - Jan 31, 2029

2025

2024

What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?

Feb 2, 5:10 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

533567

OptionProbability

It won’t happen by the end of 2025

The IOC and/or US Olympic committee will threaten participation bans against anyone participating in the Enhanced Games

It will run over budget

Participants from 10 or more countries will enter the Games

Some enhancing substance or surgery will be banned by the Games (not just by law)

A country will ban or restrict participation in the Enhanced Games

A woman will break a formal world record previously held by a man, for any amount of time

Dana White will attend the Enhanced Games

A Fortune 100 company or brand will sponsor the Enhanced Games

There will be a restriction on political speech by participants and/or their teams by the Games

Swimming, gymnastics, weightlifting, track and field, and combat will be the ONLY event categories

Athletes from the United States will win the most events

A prominent financial backer will bail out of the project before the Games

A leg is lost (whatever that means)

Participants from 25 or more countries will enter the Games

Watching the Games online will be officially free in the United States (with or without ads)

A nation's prime minister, president, monarch, or other world leader will attend the Enhanced Games

10 or more formal world records will be broken

Athletes from Russia will win the most events

It will turn a profit

There will be a protest of 1000+ people outside of the of the event for at least 1 hour, on one day

Athletes from China will win the most events

An athlete will become paralyzed, braindead, or otherwise severely disabled (but not killed) during training or competition for the Games

50 or more formal world records will be broken

It will be a culture war adjacent topic

Someone will run the 100 meter dash faster than 9.58 seconds

Someone will die while competing, or up to 24 hours after competing

Athletes from India will win the most events

Politically left people will be more likely to support it

The Enhanced Games will start and finish before the end of Q3 2025

Will marijuana cease to be classified as a Schedule 1 drug under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act by January 1, 2030?

Jul 24, 9:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.2%chance

793562

OptionVotes

YES

1271

936

Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Mar 6, 3:28 AMMar 5, 4:59 AM

132764

OptionProbability

Other

Sinners

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

One Battle After Another

Highest 2 Lowest

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Frankenstein

Avatar 3

Dune 2

The Substance

zootopia 2

Jurassic world rebirth

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.7%chance

212430

OptionVotes

YES

1500

773

Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2026?

Mar 13, 6:01 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

12.81%chance

192124

OptionVotes

YES

1544

Will Estrogen become a scheduled substance in the US by the end of 2028?

Nov 10, 4:03 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

17.84%chance

81202

OptionVotes

YES

2146

466

Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

Oct 17, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.32%chance

17956

OptionVotes

YES

1328

405

🧑‍⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 2, 6:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15668

OptionProbability

Possession of a controlled substance

Tax Evasion

Murder 1st degree

Extortion

Money Laundering

Public Intoxication

Forgery

Cruelty to animals

Insider trading (on real financial markets)

Unauthorized practice of law

Child pornography possession

Kidnapping

Perjury

Embezzlement

Unlicensed practice of medicine

Rape

Hate Crimes (USA)

Blackmail

Burglary

Murder 2nd degree

Grand Theft Auto

Arson

Manslaugher

Racketeering

Treason

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Jan 20, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

3204

OptionVotes

YES

1096

949

The Substance News

Prediction markets for The Substance

Prediction markets for The Substance

Prediction markets for The Substance

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

When will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act?

What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?

Will marijuana cease to be classified as a Schedule 1 drug under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act by January 1, 2030?

Which movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2026?

Will Estrogen become a scheduled substance in the US by the end of 2028?

Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

🧑‍⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

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