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Prediction markets for The Substance

Will Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in court?

Dec 9, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.31%chance

19736834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2352

425

When will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act?

Jan 14, 11:51 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

258545

OptionProbability

2025 - Jan 31, 2029

Not before Feb 1st 2029

2025

2024

82

15

2

1

Will marijuana cease to be classified as a Schedule 1 drug under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act by January 1, 2030?

Jul 24, 9:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91.33%chance

888059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2072

834

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.42%chance

277044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7798

3832

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.73%chance

514506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

If the Republican candidate for president loses in 2028, will they deny the election result?

Mar 2, 7:55 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

65.37%chance

353205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1374

728

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

783

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Jan 20, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51%chance

72345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

257

What will I be diagnosed with?

Apr 28, 10:16 AMOct 22, 9:20 AM

211517

OptionProbability

Autism

ADHD

Attachment Disorder

Dysthymia

C-PDSD

Personality Disorder

Intellectual giftedness (130+ IQ)

Substance Use Disorder

Bipolar Disorder

Long COVID

87

86

75

51

38

31

28

23

17

11

Will Estrogen become a scheduled substance in the US by the end of 2028?

Nov 10, 4:03 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

24.26%chance

91302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1767

566

Will a psychedelic substance get de-scheduled by the US by 2030?

Oct 17, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.28%chance

191041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

337

🧑‍⚖️What crimes will active Manifold users be indicted for before the end of 2030? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 2, 6:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15682

OptionProbability

Possession of a controlled substance

Tax Evasion

Murder 1st degree

Extortion

Money Laundering

Public Intoxication

Forgery

Insider trading (on real financial markets)

Unauthorized practice of law

Child pornography possession

Kidnapping

Perjury

Embezzlement

Cruelty to animals

Unlicensed practice of medicine

Rape

Hate Crimes (USA)

Blackmail

Burglary

Murder 2nd degree

Grand Theft Auto

Arson

Manslaugher

Racketeering

Treason

62

58

56

56

55

50

50

49

48

47

47

44

43

36

35

35

35

25

20

20

18

15

14

10

5

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