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Prediction markets for The Talk

Will people in 2050 talk about Lighthaven the same way they talk about Bell Labs now?

Sep 3, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.8%chance

126264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

330

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

36.55%chance

201265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

When will the US let Russians talk to AI models?

Nov 25, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3616

OptionProbability

2025 or 2026

2027

2028

2029

2030 or later / never happens

22

22

22

18

16

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.7%chance

12481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

In the end of 2028, will the public generally accept that talking with AI Girlfriends is cheating?

Dec 18, 1:31 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.98%chance

18410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

969

Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?

Nov 18, 2:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

966

Will a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?

Oct 19, 1:20 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

25.18%chance

7247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

930

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.06%chance

6237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

91

Will "How I talk to those above me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 5:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.38%chance

4229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

853

Does the X (Twitter) algorithm prioritize tweets talking about self-driving cars?

Mar 19, 2:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.84%chance

7186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

385

129

Will the Chinese Government formally resume negotiation talks with Tibet before the end of 2028?

Jun 20, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.04%chance

9184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

40

Will "Voters are surprisingly open to talking about..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 15, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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