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Prediction markets for The Talk

Will people in 2050 talk about Lighthaven the same way they talk about Bell Labs now?

Sep 3, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.8%chance

126264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

330

Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the end of 2025?

Mar 11, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.3%chance

335959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5309

35

Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the One Piece manga ends?

Mar 10, 5:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.91%chance

61077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

140

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

46.74%chance

201015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Will the Talk / Hawk Tuah podcast last 100 episodes or more?

Sep 16, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.42%chance

13741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

465

22

Will the Talk / Hawk Tuah podcast last 50 episode or more?

Sep 16, 4:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.48%chance

11569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

462

22

When will the US let Russians talk to AI models?

Nov 25, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2496

OptionProbability

2025 or 2026

2027

2028

2029

2030 or later / never happens

22

22

22

18

16

In the end of 2028, will the public generally accept that talking with AI Girlfriends is cheating?

Dec 18, 1:31 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.98%chance

18410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

969

Will Destiny talk to Walz or Vance before the end of 2026?

Aug 26, 3:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.56%chance

8330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

412

24

Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?

Nov 18, 2:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

966

Will "How I talk to those above me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 5:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.38%chance

4229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

853

Will Maddox and Dick Masterson appear and talk on the same show together before EOY 2029?

Dec 7, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.81%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

83

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