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Prediction markets for The Talk

Will people in 2050 talk about Lighthaven the same way they talk about Bell Labs now?

Sep 3, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.8%chance

126264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

330

With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMAug 14, 5:52 PM

1.9%chance

171335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

719

14

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

36.55%chance

201265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

When will the US let Russians talk to AI models?

Nov 25, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3616

OptionProbability

2025 or 2026

2027

2028

2029

2030 or later / never happens

22

22

22

18

16

Will Crowder talk about an assassination attempt or attack on his show by the end of 2026?

Sep 15, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.12%chance

4473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

In the end of 2028, will the public generally accept that talking with AI Girlfriends is cheating?

Dec 18, 1:31 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.98%chance

18410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

969

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.7%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

Will Destiny talk to Walz or Vance before the end of 2026?

Aug 26, 3:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.56%chance

8330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

412

24

Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?

Nov 18, 2:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

966

Will "How I talk to those above me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 5:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.38%chance

4229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

853

Will the Chinese Government formally resume negotiation talks with Tibet before the end of 2028?

Jun 20, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.04%chance

9184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

40

Will "Voters are surprisingly open to talking about..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 15, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.35%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

976

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