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OptionProbability
US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026
US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026
Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.
US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).
Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.
Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027
FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026
Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026
Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026
A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026
The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026
US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026
Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026
The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027
US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.
More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026
US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
US activates military draft by December 31, 2026
Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.
The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026
Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.
Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026
Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026
US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026
US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)
US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)
Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
28
27
21
21
21
16
15
14
14
13
12
12
11
11
9
8
8
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2008
375
OptionProbability
The season takes place in Europe
We will see any character from S3 in S4 of White Lotus
Any character from S1-3 is shown on screen
At least one named character dies
A named character goes swimming
Any named character takes drugs
Someone commits adultery
We see more than two people die over the course of the season
Full frontal male nudity
Named character gets on a boat
There is an interracial physical relationship (kiss/sex/marriage?)
Group sex with >2 named characters
A hotel employee dies
Greg / Gary appears on screen in non-flashback/photo/[similar]
Lesbian scene (romantic kissing or more)
A gun gets shot
Two named characters talk inside an airport terminal
First S04 episode airs in 2027
At least one death occurs by accident
Belinda returns on the show
At least two named characters from previous seasons appear
A medical doctor is shown on screen
Someone insists they've witnessed a supernatural or divine event
A security guard or a bodyguard is a named character
There is a mention about how guests keep dying at white lotus resorts
Hotel manager is gay or bi
At least one character is non-binary gendered
Oscar winner part of the acting cast
Someone gets fired or quits dramatically
No rich person (over $10M net worth) acts like a douche
9 episodes long (+1 from last, like each previous season)
Zion returns to the show
A named character is terminally ill
Alluding to, mentioning, or performing (on or off screen) bestiality
No heterosexual character is murdered
At least one named character is a sex worker
There are at least three named characters under the age of 18
Tanya gets mentioned
A named character goes hiking
Nobody dead from gun
Someone is arrested
There will be a funeral shown on screen
We will see Frank (S3) in S4 of White Lotus
A camel is shown on screen
A named character is shown to be vegan
Kidnapping/Abudction
Someone gets tied up or gagged (non-consensually)
We see more than five people die over the course of the season
A named character goes scuba diving
Snow is shown on screen
Someone drowns
Somebody speaks Spanish (≥5 consecutive words)
The hotel only serves vegan food
Incest
The season takes place mainly in Asia
The season takes place in South America
The season takes place in Africa
99
94
94
92
88
76
66
66
64
59
57
56
55
55
53
51
50
50
49
49
45
45
43
41
39
37
37
35
34
34
33
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
28
26
24
24
24
24
20
20
17
15
12
11
10
8
6
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Idiocracy (2006)
Other
Her (2013)
Interstellar (2014)
Children of Men (2006)
Gattaca (1997)
WALL-E (2008)
Ready Player One (2018)
The Matrix (1999)
Minority Report (2002)
The Terminator (2004)
Blade Runner (1982)
The Terminator (1984)
The Lives of Others (2006)
Back to the Future Part II (1989)
Elysium (2013)
Ad Astra (2019)
2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
Wag the Dog (1997)
32
23
20
4
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Will not cause extinction
Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure
Will cause extinction, Terminator
Will cause extinction, Economic Competition
Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World
Other
Will cause extinction, foom
Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement
Will cause extinction, AI Race
Will cause extinction, Other
79
10
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
2027
Other
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2026
2033
2034
2035
2024
2025
14
13
11
11
11
7
7
6
6
6
5
2
2
OptionProbability
It won't, because <insert engineering scheme here>
Big Freeze
Simulation Terminated
Big Rip
It won't, because <insert cyclic cosmology theory here>
Heat Death
Other
Something not mentioned here
Big Crunch
Vacuum Decay
Amongus
43
40
6
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Will cause extinction, foom
Will cause extinction, Alignment Failure
Will cause extinction, Vulnerable World
Other
Will cause extinction, Economic Competition
Will cause extinction, Gradual Replacement
Will cause extinction, AI Race
Will cause extinction, Terminator
47
22
15
8
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)
Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section
Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("
Friend who took a long time in the bathroom
Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers
Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth
Sketchy human ATM
Depression after a team I never heard of loses
Before Sunrise POV in record shop
Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is
Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company
Glass of Thrones letdown
Remembering that PBR was a thing
Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall
A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)
Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty
Candy addiction hotline
Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow
Friend who thinks they're safety officer
Brainstorming how to become viral
Slytherin doing the math
Cheap Airbnb tour
American Express review
Future Me
How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)
NFC Translation
Satire of sales ads
Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.
Every time I try to order a beer
Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot
Thinking I'm admiring the view from the Tokyo Skytower only to reveal that I don't realize I'm actually at the base of it.
100
100
100
76
75
71
69
68
66
66
62
59
59
59
58
58
56
55
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
506
85
OptionVotes
YES
NO
128
78
OptionProbability
Anti-satellite system (Russian commanded)
Onboard failure (eg. fuel tank explosion)
Onboard termination (eg. explosive charge)
Anti-satellite system (non-Russian commanded)
Other
37
16
16
16
16