The Today Show News

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

315554

OptionVotes

YES

1907

761

When will the US+allies kill more Iranians than Iran?

Feb 28, 12:27 PMOct 9, 10:59 PM

142783

OptionProbability

2026-09-30

2026-03-06

2026-03-15

2026-03-31

2026-05-31

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

1225

879

Which guest contributor would most increase Ten Today’s engagement?

Jun 26, 7:29 PMJun 26, 7:09 PM

3455

OptionProbability

Aella

Joe Alny

Other

Alex

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Jan 22, 3:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3310

OptionProbability

Other

Cory Booker

Maxine Waters

Bernie Sanders

Hakeem Jeffries

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Jan 15, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

22%chance

9188

OptionVotes

YES

228

115

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Youtube autogenerated German subtitles will have good speaker identification by mid 2026

Jan 13, 3:06 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

12.12%chance

3179

OptionVotes

YES

269

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Mar 19, 1:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.99%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

259

176

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9128

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Which World Bank economic measure best conveys how powerful countries are relative to each other?

Nov 25, 1:30 AM

140

The Today Show News

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

When will the US+allies kill more Iranians than Iran?

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

Which guest contributor would most increase Ten Today’s engagement?

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Youtube autogenerated German subtitles will have good speaker identification by mid 2026

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Which World Bank economic measure best conveys how powerful countries are relative to each other?

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