The Today Show News

Given an uptick in IVF, how will Progyny ($PGNY) perform relative to Nasdaq as a whole

Sep 24, 3:53 AMMay 2, 6:59 AM

137196

OptionProbability

0.50 - 0.79x

1 - 1.49x

.8- .99x

0.2- 0.49x

1.5 - 1.99x

2.0x - 4.99x

above 10x

Below 0.2x

5.0x - 9.99x

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

315554

OptionVotes

YES

1907

761

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

1225

879

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Jan 22, 3:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3310

OptionProbability

Other

Cory Booker

Maxine Waters

Bernie Sanders

Hakeem Jeffries

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Jan 15, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

22%chance

9188

OptionVotes

YES

228

115

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Mar 19, 1:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.99%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

259

176

Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?

Oct 23, 12:01 PMNov 20, 11:59 PM

85.65%chance

6151

OptionVotes

YES

220

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will my blinded n-of-1 melatonin trial show improvements in my sleep?

Sep 28, 8:50 PMNov 28, 8:07 PM

41.3%chance

10127

OptionVotes

YES

119

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

What will the top score on Epoch AI's MirrorCode benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

Nov 4, 2:15 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

115

OptionProbability

85% to under 90%

80% to under 85%

90% or higher

Under 80%

The Today Show News

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Given an uptick in IVF, how will Progyny ($PGNY) perform relative to Nasdaq as a whole

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will my blinded n-of-1 melatonin trial show improvements in my sleep?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

What will the top score on Epoch AI's MirrorCode benchmark be on November 30, 2026?

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