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Prediction markets for The Today Show

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

315554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

761

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

Which guest contributor would most increase Ten Today’s engagement?

Jun 26, 7:29 PMJun 26, 7:09 PM

3455

OptionProbability

Aella

Joe Alny

Other

Alex

76

14

6

5

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Jan 22, 3:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3310

OptionProbability

Other

Cory Booker

Maxine Waters

Bernie Sanders

Hakeem Jeffries

98

1

1

0

0

Can we create a custom GPT-o3 that is very stupid?

Jun 6, 4:26 PMDec 31, 5:18 PM

72.43%chance

13225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

62

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Jan 15, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

22%chance

9188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

115

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Mar 19, 1:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.99%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

176

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

83

76

57

51

12

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

53.17%chance

479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Youtube autogenerated German subtitles will have good speaker identification by mid 2026

Jan 13, 3:06 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

38.93%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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