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Prediction markets for The Today Show

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

315554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

761

Will Kalshi release internal data on losses incurred by the bottom decile of users?

Feb 4, 6:30 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

21.28%chance

8959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

520

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

Which guest contributor would most increase Ten Today’s engagement?

Jun 26, 7:29 PMJun 26, 7:09 PM

3455

OptionProbability

Aella

Joe Alny

Other

Alex

76

14

6

5

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Jan 22, 3:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3310

OptionProbability

Other

Cory Booker

Maxine Waters

Bernie Sanders

Hakeem Jeffries

98

1

1

0

0

Will my kitten Ozzy come back home before the end of February?

Feb 1, 4:49 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

62.7%chance

12216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Jan 15, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

22%chance

9188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

115

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Mar 19, 1:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.99%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

176

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

83

76

57

51

12

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

46

35

11

7

Can my 55-Year-Old Father, who Has a Severe Spinal Injury, Walk Within 12 Months?

Mar 6, 11:33 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

53.87%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

925

Youtube autogenerated German subtitles will have good speaker identification by mid 2026

Jan 13, 3:06 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

24.56%chance

285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

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