The Today Show News

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

315554

OptionVotes

YES

1907

761

When will the US+allies kill more Iranians than Iran?

Feb 28, 12:27 PMOct 9, 10:59 PM

173518

OptionProbability

2026-09-30

2026-03-06

2026-03-15

2026-03-31

2026-05-31

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

1225

879

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Jan 22, 3:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3310

OptionProbability

Other

Cory Booker

Maxine Waters

Bernie Sanders

Hakeem Jeffries

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Jan 15, 2:45 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

22%chance

9188

OptionVotes

YES

228

115

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Mar 19, 1:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.99%chance

8176

OptionVotes

YES

259

176

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Will at least 200 Tesla Cybercabs be registered for public robotaxi service by December 31, 2026?

Sep 15, 1:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

18.16%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Which World Bank economic measure best conveys how powerful countries are relative to each other?

Nov 25, 1:30 AM

140

The Today Show News

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Prediction markets for The Today Show

Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.

When will the US+allies kill more Iranians than Iran?

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

Has a current US Senator or House Representative said the N-word?

Will Netflix’s live action adaptation of One Piece be produced to completion? (12 seasons)

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Will Generation Beta (whatever they’re called) prefer Apple devices? 👶📱🗓️

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Will at least 200 Tesla Cybercabs be registered for public robotaxi service by December 31, 2026?

Which World Bank economic measure best conveys how powerful countries are relative to each other?

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