OptionProbability
Tom Brady is at the game
Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl
Super Bowl is won by a bird team
First score is a field goal
Coin toss is 'heads'
Gatorade shower color is yellow/green
Onside kick attempt
Unauthorized person gets on the field of play
Team has 5+ sacks
Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)
Team will be scoreless for a quarter
Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half
First play from scrimmage is a rush
Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even
Winning margin is 10+ points
Both teams complete their first pass attempt
Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given
Pick 6 occurs
2 point conversion attempted
Player goes into the blue tent
Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)
At least one team has 0 points at halftime
Winning team has more total yards
Any player scores 7+ points individually
Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown
All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)
Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made
Holding call in 4th quarter
A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown
Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions
No rushing touchdowns scored
Any player successfully hurdles a defender
[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]
Opening kickoff result is a touchback
Drake Maye sacked in 4th Quarter
Player knocks non-player over on the sideline
Kick is missed
Head coach throws a challenge flag
Team is a first time super bowl winner
Final score is scorigami
Current or former US President in attendance
Announcer says "tush push"
Score is tied at half-time
Taylor Swift is at the game
Game goes to OT
Failed 4th down attempt
Last play is 'victory formation'
Any player has a 60+ yard reception
Coin toss is 'tails'
A safety is scored
Kick is successfully blocked
Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game
National anthem is over 2 minutes
Special teams touchdown
Successful 2-point conversion
There is a doink
Stadium blackout occurs
Player gets carted off the field
First turnover is an interception
Player gets ejected from the game
Successful 'hail mary' pass is made
Player retires immediately after game
Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct
Backup QB gets put in the game
Points scored in the first 90 seconds
A player's jersey gets torn
Team wins by exactly one point
Player shown eating a snack on the sideline
Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration
Quarterback runs in for a touchdown
50+ yard field goal is made
A player catches the ball with one hand
An administrative timeout is taken
Player crying during national anthem
First score is a touchdown
Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal
Team that scores last wins the game
Score is tied again after 0-0
QB catches a pass from any player
Any player scores 2+ touchdowns
Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback
First drive of game is a '3 and out'
Kicker is iced
Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game
Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl
[LX total score] > [LIX total score]
Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP
Altercation occurs between a player and a coach
Team leading at halftime loses
Broadcast uses video from pylon camera
No penalties in the 4th quarter
Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs
Winning team has more passing yards
Winning team has more turnovers
Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration
Ruling on the field gets overturned by review
Trick play results in positive yardage
Both teams have a 4th quarter lead
Any player to score an octopus
Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game
No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game
Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer
Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given
Chains used to measure first down 1+ times
WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points
Tush Push touchdown is made
50+ yard return
Injury timeout is taken
Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd
Both teams score in 1st quarter
[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]
Super Bowl MVP not from winning team
Announcer says "goat"
Live animal enters the field of play
Unauthorized person touches midfield logo
First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics
Announcer says "stud"
Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl
Super Bowl is canceled, postponed or rescheduled (from 2-8-2026)
Announcer says “hawk-eye”
No touchdowns scored
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
77
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Use sourdough instead of yeast
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Make banana bread
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Add garlic
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Brush on an egg wash
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Make the bread taste good
Bake for 15 more minutes
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Taste the bread
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Increase water by 50 g
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Add caffeine to the bread
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
it needs more salt
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
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81
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78
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59
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53
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47
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6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2723
1055
OptionProbability
Kissing
Puts his hand on the small of a woman's back (does not have to be romantic/sexual touch)
Flirts with Moneypenny
Sex is implied but not shown (e.g. Kissing, then fading to black and then waking up in bed together)
Cuddling
Hugging
Kisses (or more) with multiple partners (not necessarily at once)
Committing a crime together
Romantic dinner
Holding hands
Missionary
Say or be told "I love you" (Any language)
Massage
Sexting
Multiple partners (at once)
Oral
Spanking (receive or give)
Gay sex
Anal
Oral (giving)
Oral (receiving)
Pegging
Double Anal Penetration
97
88
81
80
70
65
61
61
51
45
39
33
28
20
13
11
10
9
8
7
7
6
6
OptionProbability
Boxing
Greco-Roman Wrestling
Beach Volleyball
Golf
Surfing
Weightlifting
Sport Climbing
Modern Pentathlon
Cricket
3x3 Basketball
Taekwondo
U23 Football (Soccer)
Heptathlon
Skateboarding
Lacrosse
Squash
Baseball
Flag Football
Rhythmic Gymnastics
Bouldering (alone, not part of a combined event)
Netball
Softball
Rugby League
Touch (aka Touch Football or Touch Rugby League)
Lead (alone, not part of a combined event)
BMX Freestyle
Dressage
More than 12 Freestyle Wrestling categories
50 kilometres race walk
Skateboard Vert
Lifesaving
Compound Bow Archery
Kickboxing
Keelboat Sailing
Karate
Men's Rhythmic Gymnastics
Motorsports
Women's Greco-Roman wrestling
Beach Sprint Rowing
Racquetball
Australian Rules Football
Pickleball
Lightweight Rowing
Ultimate
Breaking
88
88
88
88
86
86
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
74
74
74
69
64
61
59
57
51
50
50
50
50
50
48
45
45
43
41
41
41
39
39
31
31
28
26
23
21
20
18
12
OptionProbability
Developed nations will soon stop legally or socially enforcing monogamy, with polyamory becoming more accepted
Supersonic planes will make a comeback by 2085
Human delivery workers will soon be replaced by drones
Slaughtering animals for food will go out of fashion and be outlawed by 2125
Cash will become extinct and replaced with digital alternatives by 2040
Self-driving cars will become the norm and human driving will be illegal except in emergencies by 2045
Smart homes will be made obsolete by advanced robots by 2085
Touch screens, keyboards and handheld devices will be replaced with motion capture and AR by 2045
Advanced imaging technology for daily health checks will become standard in households by 2050
The quantum internet will fade into obscurity by 2085
Combustion engines will become obsolete by 2040
VR will remain a niche technology by 2085
Growing fetuses in synthetic uteruses replaces pregnancy as the norm by 2055
86
70
69
68
68
67
64
52
46
33
28
17
5
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2271
744
OptionProbability
Touch-screen smartphones
AR/VR glasses
Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024
Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024
Rabbit-style voice agents
Humane-style pins
Brain computer interfaces
72
17
4
3
1
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1398
903
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2168
461
OptionProbability
>= 6.85" display
>= 8x optical zoom
a Thunderbolt 4 or USB4 port
>= 3 high-performance cores
>= 130% mAh battery of next-tier iPhone
greater optical zoom than next-tier iPhone
more high-performance cores than next-tier iPhone
Special LLM capabilities (e.g. extra cache for LLM weights near a Neural Engine)
2 TB storage option
>= 1.5x RAM of next-tier iPhone
>= 12 GB RAM
>= 1.5x transistors of next-tier iPhone
No physical buttons https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/28/20th-anniversary-iphone-solid-state-buttons/
officially supports a desktop-like experience when used with external displays (~same web app experience as MacOS Safari)
a Thunderbolt 3 port
a Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) chip
special LLM capabilities beyond next-tier iPhone. Just 2x inference volume wouldn't count.
split-screen multi-tasking
more external buttons than next-tier iPhone
>= 2 USB-C ports
Touch ID
officially supports dual-booting MacOS
89
80
76
72
66
66
66
66
66
59
51
50
50
41
41
41
41
41
38
26
19
17
OptionVotes
YES
NO
134
74
