OptionVotes
YES
NO
2676
526
OptionProbability
None (no direct annexation attempt)
Direct hostilities -- Surprise large scale military action (blockade, direct attack, etc.)
Other
An small incident (whether accidental or planned) snowballs into a full scale conflict
Formal ultimatum -- China will formally request for talks to discuss annexation ("or else")
58
18
12
6
5
