OptionProbability
Mukesh
Nothing happens - strait stays closed, no power plant attacks
WTI Crude Oil >= $100 at market close
Trump claims he never made an ultimatum
Widespread damage to Iran's critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Widespread damage to Gulf critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Busehr power plant suffers critical damage
VIX (Volatility Index) closes at or above $30.00 on Monday? (Friday Closed 26.78)
US hits an Iranian power plant by April
Iran hits a desalination plant by April
S&P500 and Dow Jones both close down on Monday from Fridays Close
Widespread damage to Israel's critical infrastructure by the end of March.
Iran says they will open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours
A nuclear weapon is used.
82
64
49
47
45
32
31
28
23
21
20
11
3
1
None (no direct annexation attempt)
Direct hostilities -- Surprise large scale military action (blockade, direct attack, etc.)
Other
An small incident (whether accidental or planned) snowballs into a full scale conflict
Formal ultimatum -- China will formally request for talks to discuss annexation ("or else")
62
17
10
6
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
332
183
145
69
