OptionProbability
None (no direct annexation attempt)
Direct hostilities -- Surprise large scale military action (blockade, direct attack, etc.)
An small incident (whether accidental or planned) snowballs into a full scale conflict
Formal ultimatum -- China will formally request for talks to discuss annexation ("or else")
Other
58
14
11
9
7
Apr 6-12, 2026
Apr 13-16, 2026
Apr 17-25, 2026
Apr 26-30, 2026
61
36
1
