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Prediction markets for The View

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

162098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

856

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2026?

Mar 19, 12:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

321332

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

openai.com

baidu.com

youtube.com

twitter.com

instagram.com

90

5

3

1

0

0

0

Which Youtube account will have the most viewed video at the end of 2030, excluding content for kids?

Apr 8, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22638

OptionProbability

Other

Luis Fonsi

BLACKPINK

Discord

Wiz Khalifa

Psy

Ed Sheeran

Mark Ronson

51

20

18

4

2

2

2

2

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.26%chance

19595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

603

One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?

Mar 16, 3:29 PMMar 13, 10:00 PM

11510

OptionProbability

No Change

Mostly Negative

Mostly Positive

56

28

16

Will the view that black holes filled with negative pressure explain the expansion of the Universe be the most supported hypothesis in 2030?

Feb 18, 7:29 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

5.09%chance

5323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

98

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?

Dec 1, 3:36 AMSep 30, 10:59 PM

466

OptionProbability

4th-6th

7th-9th

1st-3rd

49

31

20

Will the majority of longtermist predictions made before 2030 be viewed as directionally correct by 2100?

Mar 27, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

Who will win a seat on the Mountain View City Council in November 2026?

May 17, 12:03 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

444

OptionProbability

Silja Paymer

Robert Cox

Erik Poicon

Alexander Amoroso

IdaRose Sylvester

Paul Donahue

54

52

52

52

50

50

How will "The AI Job Apocalypse Is A Is A Complete Fantasy" be viewed at the end of 2027?

May 7, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

Correct

Mixed

Incorrect

55

29

17

Whoopi Goldberg announces retirement from the view by December 31, 2026

Jan 16, 7:05 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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