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Prediction markets for The View

Will Jimmy Kimmel Live post a video by March 31st with ‘Trump’ in the title and it gets less than 1M views after 7 days?

Jan 27, 7:52 AMApr 7, 11:59 PM

5.95%chance

12000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3250

1010

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2030?

Mar 19, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

651536

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

youtube.com

openai.com

twitter.com

baidu.com

instagram.com

40

35

21

2

1

1

1

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2026?

Mar 19, 12:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

321332

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

openai.com

baidu.com

youtube.com

twitter.com

instagram.com

90

5

3

1

0

0

0

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

74.72%chance

151219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

605

How many YouTube videos with over 500k views will include "quantum" in the title within the next 60 days?

Jan 12, 6:58 PMMar 13, 6:58 PM

11750

OptionProbability

A) 0

D) 4–5

B) 1

E) 6+

C) 2–3

54

36

33

23

21

Which Youtube account will have the most viewed video at the end of 2030, excluding content for kids?

Apr 8, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19558

OptionProbability

Other

Luis Fonsi

BLACKPINK

Discord

Ed Sheeran

Mark Ronson

Wiz Khalifa

Psy

55

25

5

5

3

3

2

2

Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2026?

Jul 16, 4:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.69%chance

12377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.44%chance

16363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

776

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

Will the majority of longtermist predictions made before 2030 be viewed as directionally correct by 2100?

Mar 27, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?

Dec 1, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

7th-9th

4th-6th

1st-3rd

42

32

26

Whoopi Goldberg announces retirement from the view by December 31, 2026

Jan 16, 7:05 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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