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Prediction markets for The View

Will Jimmy Kimmel Live post a video by March 31st with ‘Trump’ in the title and it gets less than 1M views after 7 days?

Jan 27, 7:52 AMApr 7, 11:59 PM

5.95%chance

12000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2341

101

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2026?

Mar 19, 12:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

321332

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

openai.com

baidu.com

youtube.com

twitter.com

instagram.com

90

5

3

1

0

0

0

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

74.72%chance

151219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

605

Which Youtube account will have the most viewed video at the end of 2030, excluding content for kids?

Apr 8, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22638

OptionProbability

Other

Luis Fonsi

BLACKPINK

Discord

Wiz Khalifa

Psy

Ed Sheeran

Mark Ronson

51

20

18

4

2

2

2

2

Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2026?

Jul 16, 4:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38%chance

20625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

79

One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?

Mar 16, 3:29 PMMar 13, 10:00 PM

10460

OptionProbability

No Change

Mostly Negative

Mostly Positive

53

30

17

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.72%chance

17413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

725

Will The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 8 reach 50 million views by the end of April?

Mar 6, 8:23 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

43%chance

2251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

Will the majority of longtermist predictions made before 2030 be viewed as directionally correct by 2100?

Mar 27, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?

Dec 1, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

7th-9th

4th-6th

1st-3rd

42

32

26

Whoopi Goldberg announces retirement from the view by December 31, 2026

Jan 16, 7:05 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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