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Prediction markets for The View

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

162098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

856

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.46%chance

201595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2364

251

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2030?

Mar 19, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

651536

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

youtube.com

openai.com

twitter.com

baidu.com

instagram.com

40

35

21

2

1

1

1

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2026?

Mar 19, 12:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

321332

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

openai.com

baidu.com

youtube.com

twitter.com

instagram.com

90

5

3

1

0

0

0

Will this Angine de Poitrine video get more views than the number of inhabitants of the Tokyo metro area within a year?

Aug 3, 10:29 AMAug 3, 10:23 AM

37.84%chance

7825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

390

Which Youtube account will have the most viewed video at the end of 2030, excluding content for kids?

Apr 8, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22639

OptionProbability

Other

Luis Fonsi

BLACKPINK

Discord

Wiz Khalifa

Psy

Ed Sheeran

Mark Ronson

51

20

17

4

2

2

2

2

Will relational quantum mechanics become the consensus view by the end of 2040?

Dec 7, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.63%chance

10566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

129

Will Reckless Ben's video on Bricks and Minifigs have 10 million or more views before the end of 2026?

Jun 4, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.18%chance

8158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

Will the majority of longtermist predictions made before 2030 be viewed as directionally correct by 2100?

Mar 27, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

In 10 years time, will I view my decision to partake in the ### capital raise a wise decision?

Mar 31, 3:53 AMMar 31, 12:59 PM

48.88%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

91

89

Whoopi Goldberg announces retirement from the view by December 31, 2026

Jan 16, 7:05 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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