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Prediction markets for The View

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

162098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

856

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.46%chance

201595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2364

251

What will be the most viewed website in the world at the end of 2030?

Mar 19, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

651536

OptionProbability

google.com

Other

youtube.com

openai.com

twitter.com

baidu.com

instagram.com

40

35

21

2

1

1

1

Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2026?

Jul 16, 4:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.74%chance

221185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

510

20

Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2026?

Jun 12, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.28%chance

251081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

21

Will this Angine de Poitrine video get more views than the number of inhabitants of the Tokyo metro area within a year?

Aug 3, 10:29 AMAug 3, 10:23 AM

37.84%chance

7825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

390

One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?

Mar 16, 3:29 PMMar 13, 10:00 PM

11510

OptionProbability

No Change

Mostly Negative

Mostly Positive

56

28

16

What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?

Dec 1, 3:36 AMSep 30, 10:59 PM

5186

OptionProbability

7th-9th

4th-6th

1st-3rd

54

42

4

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

Will the majority of longtermist predictions made before 2030 be viewed as directionally correct by 2100?

Mar 27, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

Who will win a seat on the Mountain View City Council in November 2026?

May 17, 12:03 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

444

OptionProbability

Silja Paymer

Robert Cox

Erik Poicon

Alexander Amoroso

IdaRose Sylvester

Paul Donahue

54

52

52

52

50

50

How will "The AI Job Apocalypse Is A Is A Complete Fantasy" be viewed at the end of 2027?

May 7, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

Correct

Mixed

Incorrect

55

29

17

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