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Prediction markets for The Wall Street Journal
How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?
Sep 10, 8:16 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM
7836816
OptionProbability
48
45
24
22
18
12
11
7
6
OptionVotes
1565
639
Will Michael Saylor be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?
Mar 4, 7:47 PMFeb 5, 4:59 AM
14.28%chance
212747
OptionVotes
1493
859
OptionVotes
1877
533
Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77%chance
91676
OptionVotes
1830
547
OptionVotes
2532
395
Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?
May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM
31.26%chance
91154
OptionVotes
1483
674
Which of the following media outlets will close *or* undergo significant downsizing/restructuring before 2028?
Mar 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
16811
OptionProbability
92
72
72
72
69
66
66
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
42
41
39
34
34
34
20
9
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.42%chance
15577
OptionVotes
1455
887
Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?
Feb 12, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
75.8%chance
7407
OptionVotes
1050
822
US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028
Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
45.42%chance
5298
OptionVotes
1096
912
OptionVotes
1061
942