OptionProbability
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
Mr Beast reaches 400M subscribers on youtube
English Wikipedia reaches 7M articles or more
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
new apple iphone releases
Manifest 2025 happens
Trump enacts tariffs on china
Spider Man Beyond the Spider Verse release date announced
Coyote vs Acme release date is announced
Verdict in P Diddy Sean Combs trial is reached
Trump deportations officially start happening
grok 4 releases
Chat GPT 5 releases
100th spacex launch of the year
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
Trump fires / discharges / replaces a member of his cabinet
Release date of Hollow Knight Silksong known
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
Skate 4 releases
Manifold announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
StubHub IPO finalized
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Twitter gets a new CEO
Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views
Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage
SpaceX IPO finalized
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
USA Government has a shutdown
Eric Adams no longer mayor of NYC
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
Stripe IPO finalized
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
A commercial airline hijacking
This market reaches 500 traders
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
91
87
85
53
50
50
50
47
40
39
31
29
27
24
23
20
19
18
11
8
7
7
6
5
5
4
2
OptionProbability
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more
a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
this market reaches 100 traders
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
Saw XI Releases in USA
alan greenspan passes away
coup in an african country
noam chomsky passes away
chinese spy balloon incident reported on news
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
another trump assassination attempt
this market reaches 5k individual TRADES
discord IPO happens
2025 nobel peace prize winner announced
Hades 3 announced (game)
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses
Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage
zootopia 2 releases
Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
First game of the MLB World Series starts
manifold raises more money
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
MLB rookie of the year announced
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
stripe ipo happens
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
Cy Young award winner announced
Third dune movie officially announced
trump removes a cabinet member
windows 12 announcement is made
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
the third Atlantic hurricane of the season
someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
trump starts mass deportations
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
Skate 4 releases
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam
grok4 release date
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the third Pacific hurricane of the season
28 years Later releases in USA
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
chime IPO happens
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
First Apple Event of the year
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
manifest 2025 ends
Manifest 2025 starts
Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers
Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more
claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
Llama 4 released to the general userbase
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
south korean president removed from power
the first Solar eclipse of the year
First Nintendo direct of the year
trump declares war or orders military actions on another country
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico
new iphone releases in the USA (official date)
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
new iphone release date announced (in the USA)
grok 3 release date
nintendo switch successor announced officially
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china
CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)
doomsday clock announcement
USA President issues 10th executive order
USA President issues 1st executive order
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
this market reaches 1k individual TRADES
98
94
86
86
86
86
81
76
74
72
72
72
72
71
69
69
69
69
69
67
66
65
65
63
63
63
63
61
61
60
59
59
58
57
56
55
55
55
54
54
54
53
53
52
52
52
51
51
50
50
49
49
48
48
47
46
45
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Hytale
Left 4 Dead 3
Far Cry 8
Portal 3
Star Craft 3
Team Fortress 3
Grand Theft Auto 7
Counter Strike 3
Crysis 4
Star Citizen
Fable 4
Physint (Kojima stealth game)
Saints Row (6th main game)
Age of Empires 5
Red Dead Redemption 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Tekken 9
Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)
Riot's MMORPG
Armored Core 7
Fallout 5
Bloody Roar 5
A Plague Tale 3
Watch Dogs 4 (after Legion)
Kingdom Hearts 4
Dead or Alive 7
Bayonetta 4
Half Life 3
Devil May Cry 6
Mass Effect 5
rivals of aether 3
Soul Calibur 7
Mega Man 12
Dragon Quest 12
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 15
Dynasty Warriors 10
Samurai Shodown (after 2019 release)
Final Fantasy 18
Earth Defense Force 7
Radio the Universe
Dynasty Warriors 11
Little Nightmares 3
Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves
Crackdown 4
Dead Island 3
Dead Space 4
Pikmin 5
Tony Hawk Pro Skater 6
BlazBlue (after Cross Tag Battle)
Under Night In-Birth 3
ARK Survival Evolved 2
Mario Kart 10
Diablo 5
Bioshock 4 (after Infinite)
Monaco 2
Elder Scrolls 6
Marathon
Far Cry 7
Final Fantasy 17
Street Fighter 7
The Sims 5
Persona 6
Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)
Resident Evil 9
Wolf Among Us 2
Civilization 8
Hearts of Iron 5
Need for Speed (26th main game)
Tropico 7
Gran Turismo 8
King of Fighters 16
Guilty Gear (after Strive)
Haunted Chocolatier
Skate 4
ARMA 4
Splatoon 4
Control 2
2XKO
Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2
Virtua Fighter 6
Command and Conquer 5
Gears of War 6
Witcher 4 Polaris
Europa Universalis 5
S&box (Sandbox)
Grand Theft Auto 6
deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)
Outer Worlds 2
Silent Hill f (the next main game)
Killing Floor 3
Death Stranding 2
Silksong (Hollow Knight)
Mario Kart 9
Monster Hunter Wilds
Civilization 7
Slitterhead
Rivals of Aether 2
Mario Party 12 (after Super Mario Party)
Frostpunk 2
Prince of Persia after Lost Crown
Hades 2
90
89
87
86
85
82
81
79
69
63
63
62
59
58
57
57
56
54
54
51
51
51
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
48
47
47
47
47
46
44
44
43
43
42
42
42
42
42
41
40
40
40
40
38
37
37
34
34
33
32
30
29
29
28
28
25
24
23
22
18
14
14
13
11
10
9
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Large Tech company announces layoffs
Pope Francis dies
New Pope
Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)
Nintendo Direct airs
bitcoin reaches a new all time high
joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video
new iphone releases
elon musk has another child
Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude
A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding
gpt 5 released
Dutch coalition resigns
hollow knight silksong releases
Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time
Skate 4 Release
6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states
Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)
spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025
White House goes under lockdown for any period of time
New CEO of Twitter
any country starts a new invasion of another country
at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
MLB World Series won by the National League team
MLB World Series won by the American League team
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)
there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice
Assassination of an African head of state
Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Starliner program terminated
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)
Assassination of a North American or South American head of state
Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce
grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa
Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table
Trump threatens to deport Musk
Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19
chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods
Russia : Ukraine ceasefire
Joe Biden dies
Bitcoin hits $200k USD
23andMe goes private
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%
H5N1 pandemic declared
tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized
The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series
USA government shutdown
nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)
commercial airline hijacking
destiny talks to joe rogan
Assassination of a European or Asian head of state
Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***
Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023
Donald Trump dies
Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel
MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers
North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death
AI wipes out humanity
Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ
bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less
Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens
Vladimir Putin dies
Chat GPT 6 releases
Spider Man beyond the Spiderverse releases after the delay from March 2024
LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype
linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year
Jimmy Carter dies
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
90
81
80
75
74
73
73
65
62
55
50
50
50
45
41
37
34
34
31
31
31
30
27
21
20
20
20
20
19
18
18
17
16
15
14
13
13
12
11
10
10
10
9
8
8
8
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
0
OptionProbability
2026
2027
>=2029
2025
2028
2024
36
27
18
13
9
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2920
342
OptionProbability
Witcher 3 review releases first
Russia-Ukraine War ends first
65
35