OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Snape is black
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
It's woke
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Dobby makes an appearance
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
At least one of the actors is transgender
It ends on a cliff hanger
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Hermione is white
Hermione is Indian
Features an explicitly transgender character
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Premieres in 2027
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Keir Starmer is in it
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
Gandalf is black
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Zendaya is cast in the show
99
99
98
97
96
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
93
91
90
90
90
90
87
84
83
81
80
78
73
68
67
66
65
65
63
63
59
57
52
42
42
41
38
33
32
30
30
29
28
28
27
26
25
25
25
25
24
23
22
20
18
17
16
14
14
13
13
12
12
10
10
8
7
7
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Gunplay
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A hamburger appears on screen
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Pirates
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
97
97
96
95
95
94
93
91
91
90
90
90
90
89
87
87
86
85
85
84
83
82
80
77
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
68
65
62
60
60
59
59
59
58
58
57
57
56
55
55
55
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
50
50
50
49
49
49
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48
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46
45
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45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
37
37
36
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
33
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Hobbesian
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
The Apprentice
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
With a cisgender woman
With anyone at all
With a cisgender man
With a transfeminine person
With a transmasculine person
100
100
40
38
24
OptionProbability
[Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC
[Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours
[Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC
[Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem
[UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories
[Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France
[Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race
[Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026
[FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026
[Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia
[Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026
[Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel
[Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026
[Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument
[Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC
[Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races
[Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit
[UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race
[Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories
[Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season
[Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race
[Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages
[Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France
[Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC
[Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic
[Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia
[Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia
[Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)
[Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours
[UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments
[NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey
[Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage
[Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
98
76
30
12
10
9
6
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A white man
A black man
A woman
93
6
0
OptionProbability
Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title
Dommaraju Gukesh
Javokhir Sindarov
Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş
R Praggnanandhaa
Alireza Firouzja
Fabi
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Hikaru Nakamura
Giri
Wesley So
A woman
Daniel Naroditsky
100
100
66
34
31
25
18
12
11
11
8
6
0
OptionProbability
Hot President
Woman War
78
22
OptionProbability
No human-faced-scorpion locusts
No, death will still have an effect until 23-SEPT-2028
The mark will not appear before 23-SEPT-2028
No false-prophet will appear
No whore will appear
No Two Witnesses will appear
One or more or all of the negatory responses will be the case until and/or after 23-SEPT-2068, meaning nothing of the above will have happened before the two listed dates
No temple before 23-SEPT-2028
Yes temple before 23-SEPT-2028
The Two Witnesses will start blowing people on fire before 23-SEPT-2028
The mark will appear before 23-SEPT-2028
One or more or all of the affirmative responses except will occur before 23-SEPT-2068
The whure of Babylon is some other woman
Yes human-faced-scorpion locusts before 23-SEPT-2028
Yes, death with evade being effective at all, before 23-SEPT-2028
Elon Musk is the False Prophet
The new Pope Leo will be either the prophesied last-pope and/or the False Prophet
The whure of Babylon is the First Lady
90
90
76
76
76
76
76
70
34
24
24
24
10
8
6
6
6
6
OptionProbability
words are wind
Blackfyre
tragedy/tragedies
song of ice and fire
milk of the poppy
glass candle
prince who was promised
moon blood/moon’s blood
Tyrek
nuncle
dark wings, dark words
biscuit/biscuits
winds of winter
Trial of Seven
dagged sleeves
Alicent
Aerion
Rhaenyra
quorking
Dark Sister
radiant
fratricide
deicide
sneeze/sneezes/sneezed/sneezing
Saera
house of the dragon
hard-bitten
week/weeks/weekly
damask
Essos
Doreah
rice
turkey
joke/jokes/joked/joking
cute/cuter/cutest
crocodile(s)
anon
faceless woman
insipid
slayer of lies
there must always be a Stark in Winterfell
delve (any form)
Elmo
hello
nipples on a breastplate
97
92
89
84
84
82
81
81
73
69
69
66
64
57
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
42
41
41
41
41
35
34
34
34
34
32
30
OptionProbability
A Woman
Someone born in Florida
A non-white Republican
A Jewish Person
A 3rd Party
A openly LGBT person
50
48
30
20
18
10
OptionProbability
≥1 bones (like Denisova 4, Homo denisova, ~60kya)
≥2 bones (like Xiahe mandible, Homo denisova, ~160kya)
≥20 bones (enough for ~complete skull, like La Ferrassie 1, Homo neanderthalensis, ~50kya)
No more fossils found
≥40 bones (like AL 288-1 / Lucy / Dinkʼinesh, Australopithecus afarensis, ~3.2Mya)
≥100 bones (like KNM-WT 15000 / Turkana Boy / Nariokotome Boy, Homo erectus, ~1.5Mya)
≥200 bones (~complete skeleton, like Barum Woman / Bäckaskogskvinna, Homo sapiens, ~9kya)
≥200 bones plus preserved soft tissues (mummified body, like Ötzi / The Iceman, Homo sapiens, ~5.2kya)
71
41
34
31
31
27
20
19
