OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Snape is black
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
A slur is uttered by any character
A wand is visibly placed into, or drawn from, a character's pocket/robes more times than a wand is set down on a table or desk
It's woke
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
The total number of times the word 'Harry' is spoken across the season is strictly greater than 3.5 times the number of times the word 'Potter' is spoken
A house elf is shown on screen
Harry Potter is on-screen for at least 4 hours total
More Great Horned Owls appear than Barn Owls
A character who is named Dave or David appears in the show
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
The cumulative screen time of Neville Longbottom's toad, Trevor, is strictly greater than the cumulative screen time of Argus Filch's cat, Mrs. Norris
Season is nominated for Outstanding Drama Series at the Emmys
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Dobby makes an appearance
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
At least one of the actors is transgender
It ends on a cliff hanger
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Hermione is white
Hermione is Indian
Features an explicitly transgender character
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Premieres in 2027
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Keir Starmer is in it
set in the 2020s
set in 2025
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
Gandalf is black
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Zendaya is cast in the show
Set in the year 2077
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OptionProbability
Gunplay
On screen fatalities
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
London will appear on screen
World capital other than London appears on screen
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Blue-eyed Bond
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Bond flys an aircraft
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Skydiving
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
Bond commits arson
Bond receives a gunshot wound
Oral sex
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
The title will refer to life and/or death
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond plays poker
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Wilhelm scream
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Jetpack
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Orgy
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
Mexico is shown on screen
Cryptocurrency is referenced
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
A hamburger appears on screen
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Bond goes to space
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Pirates
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Bond plays Russian roulette
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
It will be directed by a woman
Bond dies
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
The fourth wall is broken
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond is vegan
Released in 2026
Bond hits the griddy
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80
77
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5
5
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5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Hobbesian
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
The Apprentice
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
[Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC
[Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours
[Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC
[Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia
[Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026
[FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026
[Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem
[UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories
[Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)
[Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France
[Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race
[Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026
[Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026
[Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages
[Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument
[Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France
[Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories
[Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC
[Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season
[Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic
[Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia
[Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races
[Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours
[Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia
[Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)
[Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit
[Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel
[Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours
[UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments
[UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race
[NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race
[NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey
[Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC
[Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage
[Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
With a cisgender woman
With anyone at all
With a cisgender man
With a transfeminine person
With a transmasculine person
100
100
40
38
24
OptionProbability
A white man
A black man
A woman
97
3
0
OptionProbability
Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title
Dommaraju Gukesh
Javokhir Sindarov
Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş
R Praggnanandhaa
Alireza Firouzja
Fabi
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Hikaru Nakamura
Giri
Wesley So
A woman
Daniel Naroditsky
100
100
66
34
31
25
18
12
11
11
8
6
0
OptionProbability
Hot President
Woman War
78
22
OptionProbability
No human-faced-scorpion locusts
No, death will still have an effect until 23-SEPT-2028
The mark will not appear before 23-SEPT-2028
No false-prophet will appear
No whore will appear
No Two Witnesses will appear
One or more or all of the negatory responses will be the case until and/or after 23-SEPT-2068, meaning nothing of the above will have happened before the two listed dates
No temple before 23-SEPT-2028
Yes temple before 23-SEPT-2028
The Two Witnesses will start blowing people on fire before 23-SEPT-2028
The mark will appear before 23-SEPT-2028
One or more or all of the affirmative responses except will occur before 23-SEPT-2068
The whure of Babylon is some other woman
Yes human-faced-scorpion locusts before 23-SEPT-2028
Yes, death with evade being effective at all, before 23-SEPT-2028
Elon Musk is the False Prophet
The new Pope Leo will be either the prophesied last-pope and/or the False Prophet
The whure of Babylon is the First Lady
90
90
76
76
76
76
76
70
34
24
24
24
10
8
6
6
6
6
OptionProbability
words are wind
Blackfyre
tragedy/tragedies
song of ice and fire
milk of the poppy
glass candle
prince who was promised
moon blood/moon’s blood
Tyrek
nuncle
dark wings, dark words
biscuit/biscuits
winds of winter
Trial of Seven
dagged sleeves
Alicent
Aerion
Rhaenyra
quorking
Dark Sister
radiant
fratricide
deicide
sneeze/sneezes/sneezed/sneezing
Saera
house of the dragon
hard-bitten
week/weeks/weekly
damask
Essos
Doreah
rice
turkey
joke/jokes/joked/joking
cute/cuter/cutest
crocodile(s)
anon
faceless woman
insipid
slayer of lies
there must always be a Stark in Winterfell
delve (any form)
Elmo
hello
nipples on a breastplate
97
92
89
84
84
82
81
81
73
69
69
66
64
57
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
42
41
41
41
41
35
34
34
34
34
32
30
OptionProbability
Someone born in Florida
A Woman
A non-white Republican
A Jewish Person
A 3rd Party
A openly LGBT person
46
41
36
19
17
9
OptionProbability
≥1 bones (like Denisova 4, Homo denisova, ~60kya)
≥2 bones (like Xiahe mandible, Homo denisova, ~160kya)
≥20 bones (enough for ~complete skull, like La Ferrassie 1, Homo neanderthalensis, ~50kya)
No more fossils found
≥40 bones (like AL 288-1 / Lucy / Dinkʼinesh, Australopithecus afarensis, ~3.2Mya)
≥100 bones (like KNM-WT 15000 / Turkana Boy / Nariokotome Boy, Homo erectus, ~1.5Mya)
≥200 bones (~complete skeleton, like Barum Woman / Bäckaskogskvinna, Homo sapiens, ~9kya)
≥200 bones plus preserved soft tissues (mummified body, like Ötzi / The Iceman, Homo sapiens, ~5.2kya)
71
41
34
31
31
27
20
19
