OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
Snape is black
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
It's woke
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Dobby makes an appearance
At least one of the actors is transgender
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It ends on a cliff hanger
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Hermione is white
Hermione is Indian
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Premieres in 2027
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Zendaya is cast in the show
Voldemort is a woman
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Keir Starmer is in it
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
Gandalf is black
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
99
98
98
97
96
95
95
94
94
94
94
94
93
91
90
90
87
87
86
84
83
81
80
78
70
70
68
66
65
64
63
63
59
57
57
51
42
42
42
34
32
32
31
30
30
29
27
27
27
27
26
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
18
15
14
14
14
13
12
10
10
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
Taylor Swift releases her "Taylor Swift" album rerecord
The United States reports a Recession
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
China full-scale invades Taiwan
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
Taylor Swift performs at the Super Bowl
A Supreme Court justice dies or announces retirement
King Charles III ceases to be the King of the UK (or England, if the UK is broken up)
Reputation (TV) is released
Travis Kelce Retires From the NFL
Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams
Taylor Swift dies
The UN has a new member state
Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl
A woman is president of the United States
Taylor Swift goes to Space
A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected
Obergefell is effectively overturned by the Supreme Court
The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs
Taylor Swift does not have a live performance for a period of at least 2 years
Any United States current or former president dies (after Jimmy Carter)
There is an official Russia Ukraine peace treaty
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
Jimmy Carter Dies
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency
Taylor Swift releases 2 new (non-rerecord) albums
Taylor Swift gets engaged
Taylor Swift attends a Super Bowl won by the Kansas City Chiefs
Pope Francis ceases to be Pope
Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams
Destiny is unbanned from Twitch
Bitcoin goes below $100k
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Hobbesian
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
The Apprentice
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
With a cisgender woman
With anyone at all
With a cisgender man
With a transfeminine person
With a transmasculine person
100
100
40
38
24
OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Under 60 yo
Straight
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Speaks a foreign language
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has visited or lived in China
Has ever been divorced
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
97
90
89
85
84
84
83
82
69
68
67
65
65
62
62
61
58
57
56
55
53
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
43
43
40
40
38
37
37
37
36
35
35
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
25
24
23
22
22
22
22
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
13
13
11
10
9
8
7
3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Official sub 2:00 marathon
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Joe Biden dies
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
chat gpt 6 released
Human steps foot on the moon again
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
The United States leaves NATO
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
90
87
81
81
74
72
66
65
65
64
62
59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
27
26
7
6
OptionProbability
[Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem
[Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France
[Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race
[Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC
[Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026
[UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories
[FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026
[Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)
[Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC
[Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026
[Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit
[Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours
[Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia
[Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey
[Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel
[Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season
[Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC
[Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories
[NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race
[Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026
[UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race
[Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC
[Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument
[Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France
[Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic
[Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia
[Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia
[Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)
[Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours
[UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments
[NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage
[Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo
100
100
100
100
100
100
85
83
74
73
65
57
31
29
28
24
23
23
21
19
18
17
17
16
15
13
10
9
9
8
5
5
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title
Dommaraju Gukesh
Javokhir Sindarov
Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş
R Praggnanandhaa
Alireza Firouzja
Fabi
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Hikaru Nakamura
Giri
Wesley So
A woman
Daniel Naroditsky
100
100
66
34
31
25
18
12
11
11
8
6
0
OptionProbability
1 woman
2 women
0 women
3 women
4 women
42
35
21
2
0
OptionProbability
Front-facing portrait, plaid shirt
Side profile, plaid shirt
Outdoor sweater photo
Timothee Chalamet pool scene, CMBYN
Jini Jane from Kiirac
Curtis Yarvin hand, painting gifted by Thiel
Mensch, large-eyed child painting
Young Robin Hanson
Young Robin Hanson FaceApped as a woman
Munch self-portrait
Toni Hanna album cover
Side profile, plaid shirt, closed mouth
Current pfp, white shirt
73
72
70
61
54
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
46
OptionProbability
Someone born in Florida
A Woman
A non-white Republican
A 3rd Party
A openly LGBT person
A Jewish Person
66
63
34
18
12
12
OptionProbability
Woman
5'2" or taller
5'4" or taller
wears contact lenses/glasses
Owns a dog at time of meeting him
American citizen
Blood Type O
Born in the United States
Red Haired
has a phd or masters degree or higher
5'8" or taller
diabetic
European citizen
Libra or Cancer
6'0" or taller
voted for trump
Bald
89
80
74
57
50
50
49
45
37
37
31
31
28
25
10
8
8
