OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermioneās actors will all be British
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Premieres in 2027
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Thereās a scene set before Harry is born
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Peeves is a reoccurring character
It's woke
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
mandrake root on screen
Hermioneās parent(s) shown on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Hagrid says "Youāre a wizard, Harry"
Hermione is white
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernonās gun into a knot
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
At least one of the actors is transgender
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Premieres in 2026
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivanderās
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Quirrel shakes Harryās hand during their first meeting
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Hermione is black
Hermione is Indian
Zendaya is cast in the show
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Voldemort is a woman
There will be seven CGI dwarves
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Keir Starmer is in it
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
HPMOR is referenced
Hagrid is black
Gandalf is black
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Fred and George have the same actor
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
99
98
97
97
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
91
90
88
85
84
83
83
78
78
74
74
73
66
65
65
64
63
63
63
62
59
57
55
55
53
52
45
42
42
35
34
33
32
32
31
30
29
27
27
26
25
25
25
24
23
22
21
20
20
20
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
6
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Taylor Swift dies
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
A woman is president of the United States
Taylor Swift goes to Space
A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected
China full-scale invades Taiwan
Taylor Swift performs at the Super Bowl
Reputation (TV) is released
The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs
Taylor Swift releases her "Taylor Swift" album rerecord
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"
King Charles III ceases to be the King of the UK (or England, if the UK is broken up)
Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams
Taylor Swift does not have a live performance for a period of at least 2 years
Destiny is unbanned from Twitch
Obergefell is effectively overturned by the Supreme Court
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
The UN has a new member state
There is an official Russia Ukraine peace treaty
Any United States current or former president dies (after Jimmy Carter)
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swiftās first child
Travis Kelce Retires From the NFL
The United States reports a Recession
A Supreme Court justice dies or announces retirement
Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
Jimmy Carter Dies
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency
Taylor Swift releases 2 new (non-rerecord) albums
Taylor Swift gets engaged
Taylor Swift attends a Super Bowl won by the Kansas City Chiefs
Pope Francis ceases to be Pope
Bitcoin goes below $100k
100
99
98
98
98
98
98
96
96
96
96
95
95
95
95
92
92
92
92
91
91
90
90
90
89
88
87
86
84
80
74
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
US war
Woman President
91
9
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hobbesian
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
The Apprentice
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
With a cisgender woman
With anyone at all
With a cisgender man
With a transfeminine person
With a transmasculine person
100
100
40
39
24
OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Straight
Under 60 yo
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Speaks a foreign language
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has visited or lived in China
Has ever been divorced
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
97
90
90
87
84
84
84
83
71
70
69
68
65
62
62
61
58
57
56
55
53
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
43
43
40
40
38
37
37
37
36
35
35
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
25
24
23
22
22
22
22
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
13
13
11
10
9
8
7
3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Joe Biden dies
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
Official sub 2:00 marathon
chat gpt 6 released
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Human steps foot on the moon again
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
The United States leaves NATO
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
90
87
81
81
74
73
72
65
65
64
64
62
59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
26
17
7
6
OptionProbability
It wonāt happen by the end of 2025
The IOC and/or US Olympic committee will threaten participation bans against anyone participating in the Enhanced Games
Participants from 10 or more countries will enter the Games
It will run over budget
A woman will break a formal world record previously held by a man, for any amount of time
There will be a restriction on political speech by participants and/or their teams by the Games
Athletes from the United States will win the most events
Some enhancing substance or surgery will be banned by the Games (not just by law)
A country will ban or restrict participation in the Enhanced Games
Dana White will attend the Enhanced Games
A Fortune 100 company or brand will sponsor the Enhanced Games
Swimming, gymnastics, weightlifting, track and field, and combat will be the ONLY event categories
Watching the Games online will be officially free in the United States (with or without ads)
There will be a protest of 1000+ people outside of the of the event for at least 1 hour, on one day
It will turn a profit
It will be a culture war adjacent topic
A prominent financial backer will bail out of the project before the Games
50 or more formal world records will be broken
Participants from 25 or more countries will enter the Games
A nation's prime minister, president, monarch, or other world leader will attend the Enhanced Games
Athletes from Russia will win the most events
Athletes from China will win the most events
10 or more formal world records will be broken
An athlete will become paralyzed, braindead, or otherwise severely disabled (but not killed) during training or competition for the Games
Someone will run the 100 meter dash faster than 9.58 seconds
A leg is lost (whatever that means)
Someone will die while competing, or up to 24 hours after competing
Athletes from India will win the most events
Politically left people will be more likely to support it
The Enhanced Games will start and finish before the end of Q3 2025
100
85
79
78
70
67
65
65
60
59
58
55
50
50
47
45
41
35
35
32
23
19
19
19
19
16
11
3
1
0
OptionProbability
Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title
Dommaraju Gukesh
Fabi
R Praggnanandhaa
Alireza Firouzja
Hikaru Nakamura
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Wesley So
Giri
A woman
Daniel Naroditsky
100
100
33
31
25
22
18
15
8
6
0
OptionProbability
[Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories
[Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)
[UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories
[FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026
[Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races
[UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race
[Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026
[Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France
[Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC
[Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories
[Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories
[Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a EspaƱa GC
[Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours
[Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit
[Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey
[UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments
[Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours
[Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic
[Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race
[Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel
[Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories
[Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages
[Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season
[Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026
[Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026
[Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC
[NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race
[Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours
[Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC
[Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points
[Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage
[Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument
[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia
[Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem
[Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia
[Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix
[Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia
[NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege
[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo
90
71
65
62
61
60
60
60
59
55
54
50
34
34
34
34
32
31
29
29
28
26
25
24
24
24
24
24
20
20
20
19
18
18
15
14
12
12
10
10
8
6
5
5
4
1
0
OptionProbability
1 woman
2 women
0 women
3 women
4 women
42
35
20
2
0
OptionProbability
Woman
5'2" or taller
5'4" or taller
wears contact lenses/glasses
Owns a dog at time of meeting him
American citizen
Blood Type O
Born in the United States
Red Haired
has a phd or masters degree or higher
5'8" or taller
diabetic
European citizen
Libra or Cancer
6'0" or taller
voted for trump
Bald
89
80
74
57
50
50
49
45
37
37
31
31
28
25
10
8
8
