OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War Ends in June
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
A second cease-fire is announced
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Iran launches a cruise missile
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
War ends in July
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Iranian government dissolves
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
Iran regime change
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
Total casualties exceed 10,000
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
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100
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77
66
39
28
25
20
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12
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1
0
OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Premieres in 2027
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Peeves is a reoccurring character
It's woke
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
mandrake root on screen
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
Hermione is white
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
At least one of the actors is transgender
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Premieres in 2026
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Zendaya is cast in the show
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Hermione is black
Hermione is Indian
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Keir Starmer is in it
There will be seven CGI dwarves
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Gandalf is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
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1
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
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90
87
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5
5
5
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5
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4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Taylor Swift dies
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
A woman is president of the United States
A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
Taylor Swift goes to Space
China full-scale invades Taiwan
Taylor Swift performs at the Super Bowl
Reputation (TV) is released
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
Taylor Swift releases her "Taylor Swift" album rerecord
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
King Charles III ceases to be the King of the UK (or England, if the UK is broken up)
Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams
Taylor Swift does not have a live performance for a period of at least 2 years
Obergefell is effectively overturned by the Supreme Court
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
The UN has a new member state
Destiny is unbanned from Twitch
There is an official Russia Ukraine peace treaty
Any United States current or former president dies (after Jimmy Carter)
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child
The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"
Travis Kelce Retires From the NFL
A Supreme Court justice dies or announces retirement
The United States reports a Recession
Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
Jimmy Carter Dies
The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency
Taylor Swift releases 2 new (non-rerecord) albums
Taylor Swift gets engaged
Taylor Swift attends a Super Bowl won by the Kansas City Chiefs
Pope Francis ceases to be Pope
Bitcoin goes below $100k
100
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92
92
92
91
90
90
88
88
88
87
86
86
84
82
81
74
70
31
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hobbesian
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
The Apprentice
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
With a cisgender woman
With anyone at all
With a cisgender man
With a transfeminine person
With a transmasculine person
100
100
40
39
24
OptionProbability
US war
Woman President
67
33
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
Joe Biden dies
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
Official sub 2:00 marathon
chat gpt 6 released
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Human steps foot on the moon again
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
The United States leaves NATO
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
90
85
82
81
74
73
72
65
65
64
64
62
59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
26
26
7
6
OptionProbability
Kissing
Puts his hand on the small of a woman's back (does not have to be romantic/sexual touch)
Flirts with Moneypenny
Sex is implied but not shown (e.g. Kissing, then fading to black and then waking up in bed together)
Cuddling
Hugging
Kisses (or more) with multiple partners (not necessarily at once)
Committing a crime together
Romantic dinner
Holding hands
Missionary
Say or be told "I love you" (Any language)
Massage
Multiple partners (at once)
Oral
Spanking (receive or give)
Gay sex
Anal
Oral (giving)
Oral (receiving)
Pegging
Double Anal Penetration
97
88
81
80
70
65
61
61
51
45
39
33
28
13
11
10
9
8
7
7
6
6
OptionProbability
It won’t happen by the end of 2025
The IOC and/or US Olympic committee will threaten participation bans against anyone participating in the Enhanced Games
Participants from 10 or more countries will enter the Games
It will run over budget
Athletes from the United States will win the most events
A woman will break a formal world record previously held by a man, for any amount of time
There will be a restriction on political speech by participants and/or their teams by the Games
Some enhancing substance or surgery will be banned by the Games (not just by law)
A country will ban or restrict participation in the Enhanced Games
Dana White will attend the Enhanced Games
A Fortune 100 company or brand will sponsor the Enhanced Games
Swimming, gymnastics, weightlifting, track and field, and combat will be the ONLY event categories
Watching the Games online will be officially free in the United States (with or without ads)
There will be a protest of 1000+ people outside of the of the event for at least 1 hour, on one day
It will turn a profit
A prominent financial backer will bail out of the project before the Games
A leg is lost (whatever that means)
50 or more formal world records will be broken
Participants from 25 or more countries will enter the Games
A nation's prime minister, president, monarch, or other world leader will attend the Enhanced Games
Someone will run the 100 meter dash faster than 9.58 seconds
Athletes from Russia will win the most events
Athletes from China will win the most events
10 or more formal world records will be broken
An athlete will become paralyzed, braindead, or otherwise severely disabled (but not killed) during training or competition for the Games
It will be a culture war adjacent topic
Someone will die while competing, or up to 24 hours after competing
Athletes from India will win the most events
The Enhanced Games will start and finish before the end of Q3 2025
Politically left people will be more likely to support it
99
85
79
78
71
70
67
65
60
59
58
55
50
50
47
41
36
35
35
32
28
23
19
19
19
14
11
3
1
1
OptionProbability
Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)
Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)
Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)
Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)
Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)
Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)
Chris Hemsworth (Thor)
Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)
Pom Klementieff (Mantis)
Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)
Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)
Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)
Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)
Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)
Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)
Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)
Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)
Benedict Wong (Wong)
Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)
Vin Diesel (Groot)
Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)
Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)
Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)
Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)
Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)
Karen Gillan (Nebula)
Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)
David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)
Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)
Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)
Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)
Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)
Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)
Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)
Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)
Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)
Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)
Winston Duke (M'Baku)
Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)
Paul Bettany (Vision)
Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)
Danai Gurira (Okoye)
Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)
Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki)
Mahershala Ali (Blade)
Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)
Sean Gunn (Kraglin)
Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)
Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)
Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)
Wil Deusner (Skaar)
Gemma Chan (Sersi)
Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)
Lia McHugh (Sprite)
Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)
Barry Keoghan (Druig)
Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)
Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)
Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)
Ralph Ineson (Galactus)
Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)
Seth Green (Howard the Duck)
Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)
Dave Bautista (Drax)
Angelina Jolie (Thena)
Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)
Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)
Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)
May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)
Emilia Clarke (G'iah)
Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)
Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)
Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)
Brett Goldstein (Hercules)
Don Lee (Gilgamesh)
94
92
91
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
85
85
84
83
83
83
83
82
82
81
81
79
79
78
78
78
78
76
76
76
75
75
74
73
72
72
70
69
69
69
69
66
66
65
65
62
59
59
59
54
54
53
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
42
41
41
41
41
34
34
34
34
34
32
27
19
17
16
OptionProbability
First Woman
Second Black
First Asian
First Hispanic
First (openly) Atheist
First Jewish
First (openly) LGBTQ
First 85 Year Old
First Native
First Arab
First Muslim
79
63
51
46
43
42
28
20
16
8
4
