Theory of Mind News

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1412037

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?

Nov 13, 11:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4410313

OptionProbability

imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv

The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines

The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria

There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US

Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight

Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.

Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain

Biden voted for trump

Donald Trump is secretly working to dismantle the cabal associated with QAnon

5G cellular networks were intentionally developed to create health issues or mind control.

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

2241

1226

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

46.63%chance

213403

OptionVotes

YES

1302

613

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.2%chance

332044

OptionVotes

YES

1554

652

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Dec 30, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.83%chance

121690

OptionVotes

YES

743

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Jan 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

13420

OptionVotes

YES

378

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Jun 3, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

7276

OptionVotes

YES

524

438

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

199

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?

Aug 9, 7:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

60%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

Does Jose Luis Ricon have higher "K levels of recursive depth" theory of mind than Chelsea Voss?

Mar 18, 6:33 AM

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Prediction markets for Theory of Mind

Prediction markets for Theory of Mind

Prediction markets for Theory of Mind

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?

Does Jose Luis Ricon have higher "K levels of recursive depth" theory of mind than Chelsea Voss?

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