Theory of Mind News

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?

Nov 13, 11:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4310238

OptionProbability

imports of luxury vehicles have increased to Ukraine. Even many Rolex sellers in Kyiv

There are 100 million illegal immigrants in the US

The COVID-19 Pandemic was a planned event to control populations or was intentionally created by entities like bill gates for depopulation or profit from vaccines

The 2020 election was “rigged”: see description for further resolution criteria

Technologies such as HAARP are a way to disable nuclear ballistic missiles in flight

Steven Greer's claims that zero point energy technology has existed since the 50s and could produce abundant free energy for all, but has been kept hidden from the public because it would make oil obsolete.

Biden voted for trump

Technologies, such as HAARP, are being used with a large impact to control weather patterns or cause natural disasters for political or economic gain

5G cellular networks were intentionally developed to create health issues or mind control.

Donald Trump is secretly working to dismantle the cabal associated with QAnon

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

1891

1299

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

1152

769

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Dec 30, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.83%chance

121690

OptionVotes

YES

743

Who will Sadie Sink Play in Spider Man Brand New Day

Jan 29, 2:28 AMJul 31, 5:00 PM

10457

OptionProbability

Jean Gray

Other

Mayday Parker

Gwen Stacy

Felicia Hardy (Black Cat)

Mary Jane Watson

Spider-Woman

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Jan 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

13420

OptionVotes

YES

378

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Jun 3, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

7276

OptionVotes

YES

524

438

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

199

By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?

Aug 9, 7:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

60%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

Does Jose Luis Ricon have higher "K levels of recursive depth" theory of mind than Chelsea Voss?

Mar 18, 6:33 AM

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By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Who will Sadie Sink Play in Spider Man Brand New Day

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?

Does Jose Luis Ricon have higher "K levels of recursive depth" theory of mind than Chelsea Voss?

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