Think Different News

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

Oct 14, 7:05 PMJan 1, 7:01 PM

7453000

OptionProbability

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Genesis job, what will be my bonus in my first full year? (At a rate of 1 percentage point = $3000. So e.g. if it's $100k this answer resolves to 33%.)

If I accept the Genesis job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

Will I accept the Genesis job? (As opposed to Penguin, resolves N/A if some weird third thing happens.)

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

10400

7578

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.11%chance

389624

OptionVotes

YES

1740

577

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

26.09%chance

152808

OptionVotes

YES

1777

338

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

1657

1487

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

YES

1679

610

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

21844

OptionVotes

YES

9256

7401

If we buy a new car seat for our next child, will they cry less in the car?

Feb 10, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.3%chance

221333

OptionVotes

YES

1112

683

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

19858

OptionVotes

YES

1000

In 2030, will we still believe economies should mature into becoming service-based? [vibes]

Feb 20, 11:07 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

66.8%chance

13252

OptionVotes

YES

1012

960

Think Different News

Prediction markets for Think Different

Prediction markets for Think Different

Prediction markets for Think Different

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

If we buy a new car seat for our next child, will they cry less in the car?

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

In 2030, will we still believe economies should mature into becoming service-based? [vibes]

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