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Prediction markets for Think Longer

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.67%chance

774387144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6340

3474

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

22850019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15809

7952

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.98%chance

18941852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9995

9955

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

22.65%chance

14317355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2912

1461

In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.16%chance

7913791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

328

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

4912299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

Jan 17, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.26%chance

422048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

369

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.71%chance

321418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

953

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

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