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Prediction markets for Think Longer

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

31.21%chance

687290137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5548

3791

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65.64%chance

18239535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12025

8721

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

10422599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11634

10188

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

24.55%chance

14217283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2724

1519

Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?

Dec 8, 9:08 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.79%chance

6115427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

1134

In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.16%chance

6812212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

469

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

447835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

655

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.06%chance

643462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1641

1091

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

Jan 17, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.26%chance

422048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

369

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

71.58%chance

301306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

976

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