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Prediction markets for Think Longer

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

784395091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6391

3455

Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?

Jul 29, 9:28 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

83.36%chance

9864079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22379

4468

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10568

9573

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

18.44%chance

14817875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3428

1329

In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.7%chance

8314107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

220

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

Jan 17, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.16%chance

432108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

346

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Doug Ford and PC Party win next Ontario election?

Aug 9, 11:41 AMJun 2, 11:59 PM

52.27%chance

5360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

956

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

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