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Top stories

OpenAI Launches 'Think Longer' Tool in ChatGPT Offering More Detailed Responses, Linked to GPT-5 and Potential Pro/Plus Feature

OpenAI Launches 'Think Longer' Tool in ChatGPT Offering More Detailed Responses, Linked to GPT-5 and Potential Pro/Plus Feature

Authors

8

5 days ago

Prediction markets for Think Longer

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

38.82%chance

556181632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2605

2168

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65%chance

17435675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

8825

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

23.51%chance

14017188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2824

1487

Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?

Dec 8, 9:08 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.1%chance

6015397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1983

1140

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

In 2028, will AI rank at least as high as abortion on Gallup's poll of America's most important problem?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56%chance

6712154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1340

512

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

437735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

71.15%chance

633208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

1109

Will anti-aging treatments developed, approved and available for public usage by 2040?

Jan 17, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.26%chance

422048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

369

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

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