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Top stories

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

DeepSeek Launches 685B-Parameter Hybrid V3.1 AI Model With 128K Token Context and Boosts Cambricon Stock

Authors

59

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Think

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.47%chance

5552571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23161

4623

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?

Dec 8, 9:08 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.79%chance

6115427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

1134

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

33.32%chance

177377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

552

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?

Jan 30, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.26%chance

605653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2457

203

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in charge at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

63.72%chance

353057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

768

Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?

Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.99%chance

572386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

861

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

34.93%chance

451828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

71

Will this tweet hold up: I think you guys need to mentally prepare yourselves for Sinners not winning a single thing

Oct 20, 3:48 PMMar 15, 3:36 PM

37.58%chance

161530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1730

1308

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

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