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Prediction markets for Thinking with ChatGPT

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.87%chance

947615089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10712

9233

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

Will the leading LLM at the beginning of 2026 still be subject to the reversal curse?

Sep 22, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56%chance

422472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

779

If I pay for a ChatGPT pro subscription, will it make me at least its cost back in value?

Jun 19, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

51.92%chance

61210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

962

Will the ChatGPT UI/UX change significantly before the end of 2025, altering core user interactions and functionality?

Jan 30, 11:54 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

41.59%chance

211101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

728

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

Will GPT-5 think ChatGPT with internet browsing plugins is a search engine?

May 29, 12:27 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

14.62%chance

10711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

475

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.38%chance

6410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1382

724

Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]

Apr 23, 8:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31%chance

10410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

134

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

40.61%chance

17410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Will "So You Think You've Awoken ChatGPT" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 1:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.35%chance

4126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

758

Will any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.61%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

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