This School Year News

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Jul 31, 11:37 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

6011039

OptionProbability

I qualify for Blue/Black MOP 2026

I solve at least one problem with <10 solves on any test involved in USA IMO 2026 selection

I get a gold medal on the 2026 USAMO

I qualify for TST 2026-2027

I beat Artificial Ascent in Geometry Dash by July 31, 2026

I beat my high score in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I have at least 25 32768s total in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I have a girlfriend on July 31, 2026

I qualify for RMM 2026

I qualify for IMO 2026

100

APUSH cheater prop bets

Apr 25, 9:36 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3910691

OptionProbability

gets in any kind of trouble

has it p1

is female

is male

is indian

is chinese

got their answers from a higher grade level

has it p2

gets caught

confesses

gets suspended

not chinese or indian

gets expelled

is discovered by the end of next week (5/1)

is discorevered by the end of the school year (6/5)

Will I regret switching to public high school? [Decide My Life Ep. 1]

Jan 24, 3:26 PMDec 31, 3:10 PM

10.29%chance

466795

OptionVotes

YES

3688

807

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

74625

OptionProbability

Below 94%

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:29 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

61.5%chance

393791

OptionVotes

YES

5883

3494

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

YES

4193

4124

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

52267

OptionVotes

YES

1019

981

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

YES

2360

1961

Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 10:55 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.79%chance

14956

OptionVotes

YES

1613

1128

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

Will Michael Vassar's babby (#VassarBabby) go through at least one year of lecture-based K12 school?

Dec 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.62%chance

311

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will I make the Honor Roll Every Quarter Until the end of the school Year?

Feb 14, 2:07 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

68.26%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

This School Year News

Prediction markets for This School Year

Prediction markets for This School Year

Prediction markets for This School Year

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

APUSH cheater prop bets

Will I regret switching to public high school? [Decide My Life Ep. 1]

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030?

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Will Michael Vassar's babby (#VassarBabby) go through at least one year of lecture-based K12 school?

Will I make the Honor Roll Every Quarter Until the end of the school Year?

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