This School Year News

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Nov 19, 1:57 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

90.2%chance

185249

OptionVotes

YES

4897

736

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

42775

OptionProbability

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

Below 94%

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

YES

4193

4124

Will any developed country surpass Sweden in school shooting deaths per capita this year?

Feb 4, 6:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.12%chance

81814

OptionVotes

YES

606

394

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.47%chance

391109

OptionVotes

YES

2155

2089

Which of these will happen during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Jul 31, 11:37 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

19890

OptionProbability

I qualify for TST 2026-2027

I beat Artificial Ascent in Geometry Dash by July 31, 2026

I qualify for Blue/Black MOP 2026

I solve at least one problem with <10 solves on any test involved in USA IMO 2026 selection

I have at least 25 32768s total in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I beat my high score in 2048 by July 31, 2026

I get a gold medal on the 2026 USAMO

I qualify for RMM 2026

I have a girlfriend on July 31, 2026

I qualify for IMO 2026

Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 10:55 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

14556

OptionVotes

YES

1256

1213

Will more than 50 (~1%) Title IV institutions close in the 2024-2025 school year?

Oct 5, 5:54 AMSep 2, 3:59 AM

40.7%chance

3370

OptionVotes

YES

121

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

4007

3989

Will MJG day school supplies list have 2+ modifications before the school year starts?

Jul 19, 1:53 AMAug 14, 11:59 PM

55.15%chance

227

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will Michael Vassar's babby (#VassarBabby) go through at least one year of lecture-based K12 school?

Dec 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.62%chance

311

OptionVotes

YES

101

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

Jul 26, 3:26 AMJun 1, 3:20 AM

OptionProbability

Nothing

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This School Year News

Prediction markets for This School Year

Prediction markets for This School Year

Prediction markets for This School Year

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Will any developed country surpass Sweden in school shooting deaths per capita this year?

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Which of these will happen during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?

Will more than 50 (~1%) Title IV institutions close in the 2024-2025 school year?

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Will MJG day school supplies list have 2+ modifications before the school year starts?

Will Michael Vassar's babby (#VassarBabby) go through at least one year of lecture-based K12 school?

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

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