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Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?

Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.11%chance

3437585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43079

2321

Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?

Mar 18, 12:21 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

35%chance

9321572

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

819

Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030?

Mar 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

76.01%chance

7414521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

828

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Jun 12, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.47%chance

418946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

600

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

52267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

71844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2644

20

In three months, will I think setting up this Manifold news reader was worth it?

Oct 21, 2:56 AMJan 21, 2:54 AM

50.53%chance

111652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10107

9894

By end of 2030, will I perceive the threat from climate change as being worse than at market creation?

Mar 3, 12:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

321155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

954

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

32.56%chance

21893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

803

AI improves season 8 of Game of Thrones by 2030

Feb 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.52%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

993

Will I be able to generate a better ending to Game of Thrones by the end of 2028?

Oct 4, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.74%chance

5229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

918

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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