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Prediction markets for Threat Actor

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

8988238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86621

36681

Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026

Mar 10, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.99%chance

5521540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5696

176

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.3%chance

446791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3057

1039

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

10%chance

292375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

19.9%chance

171331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?

Apr 4, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.98%chance

10919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

1000

How many interventions will Trump start in his second term?

Jan 16, 12:49 AMJan 16, 8:59 PM

2548

OptionProbability

20 - 29

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

30 - 39

0 - 4

40 - 50

22

16

16

16

11

10

7

Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?

Feb 16, 6:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.17%chance

17461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

941

574

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?

Jun 11, 3:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.42%chance

3130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

670

Will a singular event cause mass civil unrest in the United States by 2029

Jan 12, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

5111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

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