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Prediction markets for Threat Actor

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.69%chance

9391230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

88682

36230

Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026

Mar 10, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.18%chance

5722426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5516

181

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.26%chance

456841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3107

1037

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

5.48%chance

334501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

24

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

12.57%chance

181456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

38

Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?

Apr 4, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.89%chance

111019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

987

Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?

Feb 16, 6:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.39%chance

17471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

951

572

In what year will a nuclear bomb next be used offensively?

Mar 9, 10:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10329

OptionProbability

2030 - 2039

2040 - 2049

2025 - 2029

2050 - 2059

2060 - 2079

2080 - 2100

After 2100

20

20

17

14

10

9

9

Will Ukraine attack Belarus by the end of 2026

Jun 23, 9:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.49%chance

12306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

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