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Prediction markets for Threat Actor

Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026

Mar 10, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.24%chance

4213730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4253

235

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.3%chance

446791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3057

1039

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

5%chance

241789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

16.45%chance

16968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

44

How many interventions will Trump start in his second term?

Jan 16, 12:49 AMJan 16, 8:59 PM

1543

OptionProbability

20 - 29

5 - 9

10 - 14

15 - 19

30 - 39

0 - 4

40 - 50

22

16

16

16

11

10

7

Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?

Feb 16, 6:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.17%chance

17461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

941

574

In what year will a nuclear bomb next be used offensively?

Mar 9, 10:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8307

OptionProbability

2030 - 2039

2040 - 2049

2025 - 2029

2050 - 2059

After 2100

2060 - 2079

2080 - 2100

20

20

16

14

12

10

9

will TeamPCP strike again in March 2026?

Mar 25, 4:38 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

25.44%chance

6293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

58

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will a singular event cause mass civil unrest in the United States by 2029

Jan 12, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

5111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

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