Threat Assessment News

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

454728

OptionVotes

YES

987

809

What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?

Apr 8, 12:56 AMJan 1, 1:40 AM

154559

OptionProbability

A (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran.

Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

A reduction or withdrawal of U.S. naval forces from the Persian Gulf.

A permanent end to the war and a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again

A formal commitment to end Iranian proxy activities in the Middle East.

Strict international, intrusive monitoring of Iran's nuclear facilities.

A permanent cap on Iranian uranium enrichment levels.

A restriction on Iran's development or testing of long-range ballistic missiles.

An end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

The deal will not be reached or finalized by December 31, 2026.

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Mar 27, 1:11 PMDec 31, 2:09 PM

3.36%chance

312367

OptionVotes

YES

536

Will Trump ban or significantly limit Prozac?

Feb 16, 6:40 AMJan 23, 7:59 AM

13.29%chance

241939

OptionVotes

YES

2555

391

Is there a hidden extraterrestrial facility beneath Pine Gap in Australia?

Sep 14, 12:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

2.28%chance

81238

OptionVotes

YES

655

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Feb 25, 3:42 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

48.83%chance

221160

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will Iran retaliate against the US naval blockade by July 1 2026?

Apr 14, 5:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

6.76%chance

271130

OptionVotes

YES

254

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11860

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Lithuania

Other

Latvia

Finland

Alaska

Will Trump threaten to cut healthcare providers' federal funding over mental health medication?

Feb 16, 6:25 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

4.53%chance

10534

OptionVotes

YES

459

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

227

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

YES

139

Threat Assessment News

Prediction markets for Threat Assessment

Prediction markets for Threat Assessment

Prediction markets for Threat Assessment

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Will Trump ban or significantly limit Prozac?

Is there a hidden extraterrestrial facility beneath Pine Gap in Australia?

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Will Iran retaliate against the US naval blockade by July 1 2026?

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

Will Trump threaten to cut healthcare providers' federal funding over mental health medication?

Is Anthropic woke?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

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