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Prediction markets for Threat Assessment

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Will Trump ban or significantly limit Prozac?

Feb 16, 6:40 AMJan 23, 7:59 AM

13.29%chance

241939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2555

391

Is there a hidden extraterrestrial facility beneath Pine Gap in Australia?

Sep 14, 12:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

2.28%chance

81238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

655

15

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8715

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Alaska

Other

Finland

Lithuania

Latvia

51

26

7

7

4

2

2

Will Trump threaten to cut healthcare providers' federal funding over mental health medication?

Feb 16, 6:25 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

4.53%chance

10534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

459

22

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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