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Prediction markets for Three Observations

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1415931

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

91

80

46

27

12

10

Maduro back in power before 2030?

Jan 4, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.01%chance

12703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

18492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Old PCs become more valuable due to AI before 2035?

Dec 8, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

11327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

Will there be a scandal about Will MacAskill in the next 2 years.

Feb 23, 8:15 PMFeb 23, 8:12 PM

15.62%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

94

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

37

32

32

Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on September 24th, 2026?

Sep 17, 6:40 PMSep 24, 1:55 PM

41.41%chance

654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

5-Year Superexponential Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 2, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.33%chance

452

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will combined CoreWeave+Lambda+Crusoe 2026 revenue exceed $10B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

59.24%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

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