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Prediction markets for Three Observations

Will there be riots in DC in August

Jul 7, 7:51 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

10.73%chance

201432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

316

Will another interstellar object be observed inside the solar system in 2025 ?

Jul 3, 8:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.83%chance

24927

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the supermassive dark star candidates observed by JWST exhibit spectroscopy consistent with dark stars?

Sep 22, 9:07 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

18.49%chance

17787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

882

Before Feb 2026, will a transformer based reasoning model >1800 elo be able to explain 3+ chess lines at any position?

Jan 28, 10:50 PMFeb 2, 6:59 AM

55.1%chance

6485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

903

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

3297

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2040-2045

2035-2040

2045-2050

2050-2055

2055-2060

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

11

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

22.43%chance

4110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

54

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