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Prediction markets for Three Observations

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

438

Maduro back in power before 2030?

Jan 4, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.27%chance

11694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

387

26

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

13430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Old PCs become more valuable due to AI before 2035?

Dec 8, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.74%chance

8273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

5-Year Superexponential Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 2, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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