Threshold News

Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?

May 8, 10:15 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

10.16%chance

5621736

OptionVotes

YES

1366

913

Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2025?

Dec 31, 5:01 AMDec 30, 7:00 PM

3320640

OptionProbability

5900

6000

6100

6200

6300

6400

6500

6600

6700

6800

6900

7000

7100

7200

7400

7500

8300

7600

7700

7800

7300

7900

8000

8100

8200

8400

8500

8600

8700

8800

8900

9000

100

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

YES

5032

4011

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

YES

990

970

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (Yes) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

May 27, 12:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

9.97%chance

11788

OptionVotes

YES

1138

954

How many pre-orders will Yudkowsky and Soares' book receive? (Threshold)

May 17, 6:17 PMSep 17, 3:59 AM

12709

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (No) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

May 27, 12:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.14%chance

8653

OptionVotes

YES

579

Will Canada face a large-scale government surveillance scandal in 2025 (threshold: parliamentary hearings)

Jul 18, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.57%chance

10350

OptionVotes

YES

185

Will Motorists for themselves surpass a 5% threshold to gain parliamentary seats?

Jun 19, 9:15 AMOct 11, 9:14 AM

49.88%chance

5110

OptionVotes

YES

100

Stacilo! surpasses Czech Parliament threshold in October 2025 elections?

Jun 19, 9:20 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

153

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Apr 6, 2:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

461

OptionProbability

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?

Will "Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 16, 1:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.26%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

1025

859

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Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?

Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2025?

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (Yes) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

How many pre-orders will Yudkowsky and Soares' book receive? (Threshold)

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (No) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

Will Canada face a large-scale government surveillance scandal in 2025 (threshold: parliamentary hearings)

Will Motorists for themselves surpass a 5% threshold to gain parliamentary seats?

Stacilo! surpasses Czech Parliament threshold in October 2025 elections?

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Will "Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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