Threshold News

Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026?

Jan 4, 9:23 AMDec 31, 9:22 AM

238807

OptionProbability

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

100

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Jul 13, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.66%chance

192688

OptionVotes

YES

1353

739

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Jun 26, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.83%chance

221727

OptionVotes

YES

2147

466

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.73%chance

19813

OptionVotes

YES

1011

916

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (Yes) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

May 27, 12:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

9.97%chance

11788

OptionVotes

YES

1138

954

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (No) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

May 27, 12:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.14%chance

8653

OptionVotes

YES

579

China vs US: who will be first to impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold?

Jul 12, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9554

OptionProbability

China

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

Jun 27, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.67%chance

9445

OptionVotes

YES

1383

723

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Apr 6, 2:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

571

OptionProbability

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?

Will "Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 16, 1:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.26%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

1025

859

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshold raised?

Sep 22, 2:32 PMOct 28, 12:00 PM

22%chance

OptionVotes

YES

107

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?

Sep 22, 2:32 PMOct 28, 12:00 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Prediction markets for Threshold

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Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026?

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (Yes) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

NPVIC Reaches Threshold Before 2030? (No) → Second US Civil War Before 2031

China vs US: who will be first to impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold?

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Will "Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will employer NICs be cut or the secondary threshold raised?

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?

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