Threshold News

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YES

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Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

NO

YES

YES

YES

Matchmaking sorts into rough tiers by win #, then matches within those tiers according to victory odds/other criteria

Thresholders are (at least usually) guaranteed to gain a power by the spell

Matchmaking uses precognition/ highly advanced prediction

Powers stolen from another Thresholder count as "gaining a power"

The spell is broken in some way that means it's predictions are off.

Matchmaking is entirely based on a single factor that everything else merely correlates with

Perry's laser gun counted as Esperide's "power"

YES

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

NO