Threshold News

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

NO

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

YES

NO

NO

AIME thresholds

AMC 10/12 DHR/HR

AMC 8 DHR/HR

USA(J)MO thresholds

YES

YES

China

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

NO