Threshold News

YES

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

Elections held before October 27th

Likud is the biggest party after next elections

More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold

New PM other than Netanyahu

Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)

Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud

Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block

Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections

Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections

Parliament dissolved before 2026 starts

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

NO

YES

YES

> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)

Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset

Netanyahu is not elected

A single list gets more than 30 seats

Bennett becomes PM

no coalition is formed

A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold

> 40 women elected

AMC 10/12 DHR/HR

AMC 8 DHR/HR

AIME thresholds

USA(J)MO thresholds

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

200

365

500

700

NO