OptionProbability
Arson
Murder
Genocide
2008 bank bailouts
two financial crimes
Sexual assault
Rape
Election fraud
financial crimes veiled as altruism
ballot harvesting
Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power
Racism against Asian people
Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off
Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you
Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight
financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent
offering drugs to a minor
stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic
Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders
Sacrificing a child to R'hllor
Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)
Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)
Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave
Lobbying congress to ban your competitors
buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you
Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes
Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars
Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)
Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played
Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner
Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft
Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants
Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors
Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.
marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them
Giving away free samples of meth at a school
Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.
Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime
Committing war crime.
Intensive pig farming
Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company
Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups
Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)
Firebombing a major city
Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.
Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power
Farming octopuses for food
Whatever is going on at Boeing
Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.
Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths
Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find
Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent
Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent
Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.
Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent
Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture
Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse
Octopi farming us for food
Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.
Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time
Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"
Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians
Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways
Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap
Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)
Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information
Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter
Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food
Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food
Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food
Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent
Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking
Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers
Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed
Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses
Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life
Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)
creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms
Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku
forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime
Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.
Octopus sex trafficking.
Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.
Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.
Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”
Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States
Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court
Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat
Selling pies made out of orphan meat.
Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.
Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.
Selling orphans fed only pie meat
Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos
Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms
Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.
Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.
Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation
Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat
Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn
Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime
Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.
Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws
Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect
Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack
Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.
Stealing a SpaceX Starship
Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.
Carjacking an old lady
Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so
Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses
Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse
Stealing the Declaration of Independence
Operating a child beauty pageant
Andrew Tate
Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time
Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger
Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them
A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains
Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution
Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.
The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.
Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.
Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.
Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas
Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land
Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries
Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death
Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths
Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person
Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.
Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.
Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.
Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself
Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself
Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries
Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.
Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.
A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.
Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.
As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.
Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC
Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.
Cannibalism in the current British Navy.
Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument
One hundred moving violations
Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons
Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain
Touching minors/ being a pedophile
Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts
Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war
Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.
Stealing Nicholas Cage
Gender "reparative therapy" of minors
Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract
Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime
Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)
Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them
The genocide in Gaza
Russia's genocide in Ukraine
Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes
Slavery
Grooming kids
Being the leader of a crime syndicate
9/11
Stranding two astronauts in space
Disturbing the space-time continuum
Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC
Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck
Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election
Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk
Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes
Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK
A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old
Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so
Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts
De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.
Sexual harassment
Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)
Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all
Killing the United Healthcare CEO
Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef
Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war
Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces
Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef
Sheltering enemies of the state
Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter
Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small
Weaponizing autism
Having a podcast
Yelling racial slurs in public
Jaywalking
Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.
Cheating on spouse
Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)
Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport
Income taxes
Copyright infringement
Romeo and Juliet relationships
Replying all to an email when you should've just replied
Welfare fraud
Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs
Grave robbery
Saying the N-word every day as a white person
Discrimination based on race
Discrimination based on sexual orientation
Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor
Having sex in public while high on fentanyl
Racism against black people
Racism against white people
Sleep Token (Band)
not seeding your torrents
Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event
Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies
Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy
Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).
Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.
Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich
Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work
hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation
opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day
twincest
drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors
Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions
working as a prostitute
hiring a prostitute
hiring a prostitute, long term
Inventing Monero
Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks
Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto
Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert
The most offensive Halloween costume ever
frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past
Doing blackface
Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes
Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued
the Asiana flight 214 prank
Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate
Cloning yourself
Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent
making mifeprestone available OTC
making adderall available OTC
Killing yourself
Cloning someone else
Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set
Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips
Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up
Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.
Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market
Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself
Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.
Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting
Calling octopuses "octopi"
Going excessively meta on an object-level topic
Illegally registering octopuses to vote
Registering illegals to vote for octopuses
Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime
The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes
"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister
Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime
Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it
Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.
Conducting gain-of-function research
Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade
Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through
Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content
Adding an option to a market right before it closes
Writing a "goto" statement when programming
Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods
Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"
Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.
Selling dope disguised as a nun.
Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life
Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually
Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies
Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024
Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.
Interrupting cows.
No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm
Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime
No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm
One moving violation.
Purchasing one whole chicken
Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation
Cattle rustling
Horse thievery
Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime
Sumptuary law violations
Homeopathy
Price Gouging
Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free
Failing to commit a financial crime
Stealing a car
Stealing from Elon Musk
Committing a financial crime against X (company)
Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.
Carjacking Elon Musk
An old lady carjacking Elon Musk
Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn
Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them
Carjacking a dumb octopus
A financial crime committed by an old lady
Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk
stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit
Raping an AI avatar in VR
Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.
Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds
Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower
Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove
Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse
Bad bagels
Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment
Still getting notifications for this market
Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.
Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.
scaring the shit out of a magpie
Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe
Committing sewerslide
Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.
Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person
Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning
Arby’s
Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.
Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.
Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation
Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation
Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse
Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists
Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument
Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away
Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards
Founding Christianity
You, the reader
One hundred counts of littering
Purchasing 500 pounds of beef
Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless
BTE Ban evading
Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef
Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.
Transing children
Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity
Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?
Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period
Messing up an 'I give you my heart' gesture and doing a Nazi salute instead
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OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Dead Internet theory
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The CIA killed JFK
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Human didnt evolve from apes
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
China made covid 19 in a lab
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
A cure for cancer has already been found
Princess Diana was assassinated
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Bush did 9/11
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
QAnon
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
China was not genociding Uyghurs
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
10102
9898
OptionProbability
Make the bread taste good
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Watch the video
Autolyse 20 minutes
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Bake it with your best friend.
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Use 50% whole grain flour
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Toast the bread
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Add 50g sugar
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Add a pinch of sugar
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Increase water by 50 g
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Improve the bread
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
it needs more salt
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Half yeast
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Add 2g? of baking soda
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
put butter into it
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Bake one more minute
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Quadruple salt
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Bake vegimite into it.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Bake vodka into it
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Replace flour with flowers
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Make the bread great again
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Double oven temperature
Halve oven temperature
Play classical music while baking
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Bake your social security number into it.
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Bake in rectangular tin
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake the bread with love
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0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
>5 new Mega Evolutions
Pikachu can be caught in-game
Available on both Switch and Switch 2 on release
Open world (at least as much as Legends Arceus)
Aiming and throwing things is a central mechanic (like in Legends: Arceus)
200 or more pokemon found in-game
>5 new regional or alternate forms of existing Pokémon (must have shared national dex number)
You will be able to go onto Prism Tower
Metascore equal to (or higher than) Pokemon Legends: Arceus (83)
Plot specifically involves time travel
Pokemon will have abilities
Team Flare will have a non-evil ancestor organization (ie the Galaxy Team)
>3 entirely new pokemon (not regional forms - must have own national dex number)
It will take place entirely inside of Lumiose City
New convergent Pokemon
It will have multiplayer beyond battling/trading (similar to Scarlet/Violet)
Released before July 2025
Piplup will be available as a Starter Pokemon
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65
61
50
50
45
27
20
5
1
1
OptionProbability
Team will be scoreless for a quarter
Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback
Winning team has more total yards
First play from scrimmage is a rush
Opening kickoff result is a touchback
Last play is 'victory formation'
Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration
Player crying during national anthem
Quarterback runs in for a touchdown
Announcer says "goat"
Player gets carted off the field
Current or former US President in attendance
Announcer says "tush push"
First score is a touchdown
Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal
Team that scores last wins the game
Score is tied again after 0-0
Broadcast uses video from pylon camera
Both teams score in 1st quarter
Failed 4th down attempt
Gatorade shower color is yellow/green
An administrative timeout is taken
Player goes into the blue tent
Winning team has more passing yards
Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown
Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made
Holding call in 4th quarter
Taylor Swift is at the game
Chains used to measure first down 1+ times
WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points
First turnover is an interception
Head coach throws a challenge flag
Tom Brady is at the game
Super Bowl is won by a bird team
First score is a field goal
Coin toss is 'heads'
Coin toss is 'tails'
National anthem is over 2 minutes
Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct
Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration
Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)
50+ yard field goal is made
Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half
Any player scores 2+ touchdowns
Winning margin is 10+ points
Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given
Kicker is iced
2 point conversion attempted
Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game
Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs
Any player scores 7+ points individually
Ruling on the field gets overturned by review
All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)
Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game
No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game
Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer
Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given
Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions
Tush Push touchdown is made
Injury timeout is taken
Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd
[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]
[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]
First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics
Any player has a 60+ yard reception
Both teams complete their first pass attempt
Special teams touchdown
Onside kick attempt
Player shown eating a snack on the sideline
Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even
Altercation occurs between a player and a coach
Trick play results in positive yardage
Both teams have a 4th quarter lead
50+ yard return
Kick is missed
Successful 2-point conversion
First drive of game is a '3 and out'
Team leading at halftime loses
Live animal enters the field of play
Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game
Player retires immediately after game
Backup QB gets put in the game
A player catches the ball with one hand
Player knocks non-player over on the sideline
No penalties in the 4th quarter
Any player successfully hurdles a defender
Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl
Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl
Unauthorized person gets on the field of play
Winning team has more turnovers
At least one team has 0 points at halftime
Announcer says “hawk-eye”
Team has 5+ sacks
Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl
[LX total score] > [LIX total score]
Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)
A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown
Announcer says "stud"
Team is a first time super bowl winner
Points scored in the first 90 seconds
A player's jersey gets torn
Unauthorized person touches midfield logo
Player gets ejected from the game
Score is tied at half-time
Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP
Team wins by exactly one point
QB catches a pass from any player
Kick is successfully blocked
There is a doink
No rushing touchdowns scored
Pick 6 occurs
Game goes to OT
Successful 'hail mary' pass is made
Final score is scorigami
A safety is scored
Any player to score an octopus
Super Bowl MVP not from winning team
Stadium blackout occurs
Super Bowl is canceled, postponed or rescheduled (from 2-8-2026)
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
2562
390
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2249
477
OptionProbability
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Put the chili in a taco
Tip every user who bet YES on this option 69 Mana while preparing the chili
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Make the chili "bigly"
Make the chili great again
Make the chili the bestest, bigliest chili in the land
Trumpify the chili
Vote for the chili
Turn the chili into a metaphor (NOT a simile) for the best moment of your life
Make it edible and throw it in
Make the chili "big league"
Season with your heart
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Assume the chili is in the interval [0,1], take the square root for less chili, if it is not in (0,1), square it, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Assume the chili is continuous. Then find an antiderivative of the chili.
Reboot the chili
Translate the chili
Replace a local church's communion with the chili (you can choose whether it replaces the bread or the wine)
The
Put pure resiniferatoxin in it (16 billion scoville heat units)
Add a teaspoon of powdered thorium (chemical symbol Th)
Commit armed robbery against the chili for its mana. (the chili's account is @EliezerYudkowsky)
Take the square root of the chili
Deport the chili
Forgo the concept of chili
AI-generate the chili
Add a different temperature to the current one
Use the chili as ink to write in DONALD J TRUMP down the ballot
Add SpaghettiOs
Make Chidi's chili from The Good Place (add peeps and M&Ms)
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100
84
78
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48
41
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24
16
0
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0
OptionProbability
Executes a synchronized dance routine.
Completes an agility obstacle course within a set time.
Solves a Rubik's Cube in under 30 seconds.
Shoots and scores from the free-throw line.
Drives a car.
Hits a dartboard bullseye.
Performs CPR on a mannequin/human.
Prepares a gourmet dish.
Replicates a complex origami figure.
Kill a human
Plays a specific song on an instrument accurately after one listening.
Assembles a furniture that hadn't seen, by reading the manual.
Executes an Olympic-standard perfect dive.
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50
46
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34
OptionProbability
1+1=2
We are currently experiencing an increase in storm intensity and extreme heat globally that are attributable to increased greenhouse gases (methane, CO2) in the atmosphere
Donald Trump is bad.
All men are created equal
“Self resolving” markets, eg that are resolved based on number of traders on each side or through a poll, should not count towards league standing
Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed
Debits are assets and expenses while credits are income and liabilities
Markets are more accurate & reliable than polls
Donald trump frequently asserts multiple lies in rapid succession - a gish gallop or throw spaghetti at wall hoping some sticks technique
A monad is a monoid in the category of endofunctors
Donald Trump is the worst president we’ve ever had
Degrading or derogatory speech directed toward individuals or groups have no place in public discourse
Government spending growing faster than GDP causes inflation
E=mc^2
All men are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights
America is a nation that can be described in a single word: asmsajskfajksfkjwq
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22