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Prediction markets for Time Fun

Will Manifold function at this time?

Feb 22, 7:07 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

254604

OptionProbability

1. January 2025

2. July 2025

3. January 2026

5. January 2027

4. July 2026

6. July 2027

7. January 2028

8. July 2028

100

100

99

99

98

98

97

97

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

Will Taylor Swift release Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version) last?

Apr 26, 6:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.48%chance

274298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

57

Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?

Sep 9, 7:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

95.86%chance

193883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3559

76

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

State of the Union Address 2026

Mar 5, 4:19 AMMar 6, 4:59 AM

232234

OptionProbability

State of the Union address is given by Trump

Ukraine is mentioned

President wearing a tie with any red

President will get heckled or booed

"Israel" will be mentioned

Someone in audience holds up prop during speech

Putin will be mentioned by name

5 or more people coordinate outfits

Non-US World Leader in attendance

Elon Musk is in attendance

"Hamas" will be mentioned

US territory is mentioned

AOC is in attendance

Supreme Court Justices clap in response to at least one thing

Someone is removed from the chamber during the speech

2026 State of the Union address is canceled

No elected Democrats in attendance

93

76

73

69

69

65

63

59

59

55

53

50

44

40

33

12

6

Will I pass CFA Level 1 exam first attempt?

Jul 27, 6:09 PMApr 2, 5:04 PM

87.51%chance

131914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2648

378

Will I be able to pay for my kids' college fund through poker?

Mar 8, 2:14 AMMar 14, 7:59 AM

6.69%chance

11707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

717

120

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

960

Will GiveWell be funding constrained a majority of the time until 2030?

Jul 10, 4:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9275

OptionProbability

More time funding constrained

Less time funding constrained

Equivalent amounts of time

70

23

7

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Apr 29, 9:01 AMJun 30, 8:47 AM

51.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

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