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Prediction markets for Time Fun

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

454728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

809

Will Manifold function at this time?

Feb 22, 7:07 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

254673

OptionProbability

1. January 2025

2. July 2025

3. January 2026

5. January 2027

4. July 2026

6. July 2027

7. January 2028

8. July 2028

100

100

99

99

98

98

97

97

Will Taylor Swift release Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version) last?

Apr 26, 6:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.48%chance

274298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

57

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Will I be a drooling Virtual Reality zombie consuming garbage dopamine optimized content and porn by 2030?

Jul 25, 2:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.04%chance

271198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

693

267

Will I be able to pay for my kids' college fund through poker?

Mar 8, 2:14 AMMar 14, 7:59 AM

6.69%chance

11707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

717

120

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

960

By the start of the 2031 NFL season, what will be the most amount of unique "Championship Belts" at one time?

May 15, 1:33 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2370

OptionProbability

4

5

Other

3

39

39

21

1

Will GiveWell be funding constrained a majority of the time until 2030?

Jul 10, 4:20 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9275

OptionProbability

More time funding constrained

Less time funding constrained

Equivalent amounts of time

70

23

7

How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

Jun 2, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4192

OptionProbability

10-15

16-20

21-29

Other

30-49

31

22

16

16

14

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Apr 29, 9:01 AMJun 30, 8:47 AM

51.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

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