Timeline News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3377099

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will "Broad Timelines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 9:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

52588

OptionVotes

YES

1001

993

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Dec 2, 11:00 AMDec 10, 7:59 AM

10.57%chance

272344

OptionVotes

YES

2370

678

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Jun 4, 12:37 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

16.87%chance

211789

OptionVotes

YES

1398

837

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

18.47%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

1329

892

Will "My journey to the microwave alternate timeline" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 10, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.79%chance

6404

OptionVotes

YES

1217

300

Will "Taiwan war timelines might be shorter than AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 8, 3:56 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

1252

964

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 2:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.05%chance

6237

OptionVotes

YES

1062

690

Will "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

1100

985

Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 19, 9:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.23%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

1045

763

Will "AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 2, 3:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.03%chance

222

OptionVotes

YES

1000

998

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

Timeline News

Prediction markets for Timeline

Prediction markets for Timeline

Prediction markets for Timeline

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will "Broad Timelines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Will "My journey to the microwave alternate timeline" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "Taiwan war timelines might be shorter than AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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