Timeline News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2970192

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Dec 2, 11:00 AMDec 10, 7:59 AM

10.38%chance

262340

OptionVotes

YES

2404

674

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Jun 4, 12:37 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

16.87%chance

211789

OptionVotes

YES

1398

837

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

18.47%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

1329

892

Will "Taiwan war timelines might be shorter than AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 8, 3:56 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

1252

964

Will "What’s the short timeline plan?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 2, 7:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

264

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 2:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.47%chance

384

OptionVotes

YES

1005

967

Will "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 19, 9:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.23%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

1045

763

Will "AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 2, 3:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.03%chance

222

OptionVotes

YES

1000

998

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

Timeline News

Prediction markets for Timeline

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Prediction markets for Timeline

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Will "Taiwan war timelines might be shorter than AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "What’s the short timeline plan?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "My AGI timeline updates from GPT-5 (and 2025 ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

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