Tipping Point News

Victor Wembanyama

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Nikola Jokic

Other

Luka Doncic

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Anthony Edwards

Cade Cunningham

Jalen Brunson

Ohio

Maine

Iowa

Texas

Nebraska

Other

Florida

New Hampshire

Michigan

North Carolina

Alaska

Montana

Tennessee

Kentucky

Georgia

NO

R+ >0% to <= 2%

D+ >=0% to <2%

D+ >= 4%

D+ >=2% to <4%

R+ >2% to <= 4%

YES

Increase

Stays the same

2028

2040 or later

2032

2036

[No AI voting advice polling available]

> 3x

2x - 3x

1x - 2x

NO

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

Wet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // D wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin