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Prediction markets for TIPS

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Apr 21, 6:05 PMMay 1, 3:59 AM

6.74%chance

513398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2049

842

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Will I be asked to tip at a grocery store before 2026?

Nov 12, 10:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.87%chance

17709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

900

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

5470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

How will AI voting advice rates compare to the Senate tipping point margin in 2026?

Jan 30, 1:18 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

2353

OptionProbability

[No AI voting advice polling available]

> 3x

2x - 3x

1x - 2x

0 - 1x

29

20

20

20

10

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.64%chance

2352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

740

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Mar 13, 10:38 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

25.96%chance

13145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

972

Will "Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 5, 3:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Tips for Empirical Alignment Research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 1, 9:10 PMFeb 10, 10:59 PM

16.27%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

116

Marginal weather in the tipping point state

Jan 25, 2:13 AMNov 2, 1:02 AM

122

OptionProbability

Wet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // D wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

Dry weather // D wins by > 4% margin

15

15

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will "Tips On Empirical Research Slides" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 3, 6:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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