TIPS News

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Apr 21, 6:05 PMMay 1, 3:59 AM

6.74%chance

513398

OptionVotes

YES

2049

842

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

1873

534

Will I be asked to tip at a grocery store before 2026?

Nov 12, 10:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.87%chance

17709

OptionVotes

YES

1157

900

Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin?

Oct 22, 10:24 AMOct 20, 10:59 PM

4.26%chance

7474

OptionVotes

YES

474

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

5470

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.83%chance

3452

OptionVotes

YES

1452

689

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

3377

OptionVotes

YES

1308

765

Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions lead the world to a tipping point of no return by 2035?

Oct 9, 12:43 AMJun 16, 4:59 AM

62.47%chance

10169

OptionVotes

YES

202

178

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Mar 13, 10:38 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

25.96%chance

13145

OptionVotes

YES

1052

972

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Dec 8, 11:28 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

390

OptionProbability

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

≥45% & D +2.5 or more (Trump good, Republicans bad)

Will "Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 5, 3:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will "Tips On Empirical Research Slides" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 3, 6:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

TIPS News

Prediction markets for TIPS

Prediction markets for TIPS

Prediction markets for TIPS

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Will I be asked to tip at a grocery store before 2026?

Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions lead the world to a tipping point of no return by 2035?

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Will "Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Tips On Empirical Research Slides" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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