TIPS News

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Apr 21, 6:05 PMMay 1, 3:59 AM

5.94%chance

523648

OptionVotes

YES

2299

826

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

1873

534

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.42%chance

7916

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin?

Oct 22, 10:24 AMOct 20, 10:59 PM

2.15%chance

8874

OptionVotes

YES

674

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Oct 14, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.74%chance

5805

OptionVotes

YES

1355

738

Will I be asked to tip at a grocery store before 2026?

Nov 12, 10:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.87%chance

17709

OptionVotes

YES

1157

900

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.18%chance

4652

OptionVotes

YES

1652

605

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Mar 13, 10:38 PMSep 2, 6:59 AM

17.02%chance

14645

OptionVotes

YES

1552

839

Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions lead the world to a tipping point of no return by 2035?

Oct 9, 12:43 AMJun 16, 4:59 AM

62.47%chance

10169

OptionVotes

YES

202

178

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Dec 8, 11:28 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

390

OptionProbability

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

≥45% & D +2.5 or more (Trump good, Republicans bad)

Will "Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 5, 3:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will "Tips On Empirical Research Slides" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 3, 6:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

TIPS News

Prediction markets for TIPS

Prediction markets for TIPS

Prediction markets for TIPS

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Will Satoshi Nakamoto tip Curtis Yarvin?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

Will I be asked to tip at a grocery store before 2026?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2028?

Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?

Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions lead the world to a tipping point of no return by 2035?

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Will "Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Tips On Empirical Research Slides" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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