TIPS News

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

Dec 2, 1:11 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

183702

OptionProbability

Ohio

Texas

Alaska

Iowa

Maine

Michigan

Nebraska

Other

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Florida

Kansas

Montana

Kentucky

Georgia

Tennessee

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

Apr 21, 6:05 PMMay 1, 3:59 AM

5.8%chance

523698

OptionVotes

YES

2349

822

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Oct 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.5%chance

81359

OptionVotes

YES

2264

1791

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

1873

534

Tipping point state vote margin for Dem Senate majority in 2026?

Jan 30, 12:46 AMNov 3, 6:59 AM

61009

OptionProbability

D+ >=0% to <2%

R+ >0% to <= 2%

D+ >=2% to <4%

R+ >2% to <= 4%

D+ >= 4%

R+ >4%

Will I be asked to tip at a grocery store before 2026?

Nov 12, 10:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.87%chance

17709

OptionVotes

YES

1157

900

What will be the tipping-point contest for the Senate in 2026?

Jul 2, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2334

OptionProbability

Ohio

Texas

Iowa

Alaska

Maine

Michigan

Nebraska

Florida

North Carolina

New Hampshire

Kansas

Other

Georgia

Montana

What are some low-effort tips for living mentally and physically healthier, and longer? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 5:42 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

9246

OptionProbability

Other

Healthy diet

gratitude

Walking

Sleep

Spend time outdoors

Stay hydrated

Positive mindset

Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions lead the world to a tipping point of no return by 2035?

Oct 9, 12:43 AMJun 16, 4:59 AM

62.47%chance

10169

OptionVotes

YES

202

178

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Dec 8, 11:28 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

390

OptionProbability

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

≥45% & D +2.5 or more (Trump good, Republicans bad)

Will "Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 5, 3:20 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

Will "Tips On Empirical Research Slides" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 3, 6:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

TIPS News

Prediction markets for TIPS

Prediction markets for TIPS

Prediction markets for TIPS

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

Will tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Tipping point state vote margin for Dem Senate majority in 2026?

Will I be asked to tip at a grocery store before 2026?

What will be the tipping-point contest for the Senate in 2026?

What are some low-effort tips for living mentally and physically healthier, and longer? [FREE RESPONSE]

Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions lead the world to a tipping point of no return by 2035?

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Will "Tips and Code for Empirical Research Workflows" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Tips On Empirical Research Slides" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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