Tires News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Fair elections in 2028

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A major war in Asia occurs

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump says a racial slur

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

Approval < 25%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

New national park created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Cannabis is federally legalized

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

See a bear

Flat tire

Hitch a lift

Ride through a thunderstorm

make it all the way to the Atlantic with at least 90% of the distance covered by bike/foot

fall off the bike

Make use of the WarmShowers network

Exceed a speed of 35mph

Have sex while on tour

Cycle >65 miles in one day

Learn interesting lore from a local in at least one place you pass through

Get sunburnt

Be chased by a dog

Receive a gift from someone you meet along the way [not including social gestures, see comments]

Someone you meet irl invites you to stay at their home (including camping on their property)

Encounter snow (via active precipitation OR unmelted on side of road)

rained on

Broken spoke

Try a new food and love it!

Meet an online friend IRL

Meet a manifold user IRL (who I haven't met before)

Encounter road closure

See a snake

someone honks at you (from a car, while on your bicycle)

Someone shouts encouragement from a vehicle

See a cat with 3+ kittens

Make it to the end without any further broken spokes

Eat more than 5,000 kcals in a single day

End the trip at a lower weight than you started (<65kg)

Three or more flat tires

Someone shouts verbal abuse from a vehicle

Notice a custom license plate that you find funny

Poop somewhere that isn’t a toilet or portapotty

Try a new food and hate it!

Cycle >110 miles in one day

Get ill enough that you skip a day.

get invited to someone's church

End the trip at a higher weight than you started (>65kg)

Cry

Something that is not the whole bike gets stolen (wheel, lights, money, phone, etc)

Get pulled over / stopped by police [while on bicycle]

Someone you meet joins Manifold to bet on this market and is still active on the site (betting 3+ days/week) when all options resolve

3 people you meet join Manifold to participate in this market

Broken chain

Buy a new bike

Someone asks if you know Prince Harry

Have bike stolen

Have animals access your food while camping

Observe, divert route or delay because of a tornado

experience temperatures above 100°F (38°C)

Get rash from poison oak or poison ivy

Be hit by an automobile

10 or more flat tires (current running total: 5)

IT will Not Fly

It will have a mode faster than plaid

It will cost more than $200k

Adaptive spoiler

It has 4 or more motors

It has traditional car tires

4 point seatbelt

It will go into production before 2027

Starlink connectivity

It won't Release before 2030

0-60 < 1 sec

It will have rockets on it

It can go underwater completely

Ejection seat

Utilizes jet engine technology

It flys a lot (>5 secs)

Misc. sensors

Tire replacement

On-board charger replacement

Suspension link or half-shaft

12V battery

Door handles

A/C compressor failure

Charge port door or latch repair

window regulator replacement

Media control unit or screen replacement

drive-unit / inverter replacement

NO

YES

NO

NO

There were no mobile phones: if someone did not show up at a rendezvous, you could only call him at home

It was allowed to smoke in bars and trains, even when children were present

The whole family used the same computer, which stood inside a dedicated piece of furniture

During holidays we used to eat from single-use plastic plates to avoid having to clean the dishes

NO

Plastic bags

Fishing nets

Plastic straws

Coffee pods

Shrink-wrap

Single-use cups

Other

Main vehicle has front window, and it is shaded/tinted

smaller vehicle that comes with it

Siren Lights (has both blue AND red)

Extendable ladder

only four wheels on main vehicle

Includes a flying machine (helicopter, plane, space ship, etc)

Main vehicle is construction related (like 2017)

Main vehicle has 6 or more tires

main vehicle has no wheels (like 1966)

Police or Fire department theme

says GASOLINE on one of the vehicles

Motorcycle included

Predominant color is Non-Green (like 2020, 2015 or 2005) (not counting white as a color)