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Prediction markets for TO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.07%chance

436811858733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28324

16897

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.44%chance

1581087574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

767

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

123742923

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Christine Pelosi

London Breed

Other

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

59

25

13

1

1

1

0

0

0

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

319656827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

2606

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44%chance

597583936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3288

1364

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.09%chance

827508712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57325

10606

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.38%chance

345248426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2061

1304

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

372135389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

58.26%chance

210112310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1644

1145

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4574069

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

34

32

20

14

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

26.47%chance

252515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

601

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