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Prediction markets for TO

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

420911312608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28386

16872

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.97%chance

1371061192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

795

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121673466

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Saikat Chakrabarti

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

London Breed

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

55

26

15

2

1

1

1

1

0

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.81%chance

301639995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2722

2431

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

560505154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3523

1103

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.99%chance

813504838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57689

10565

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.77%chance

502415333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3100

2051

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.06%chance

319218676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2093

1285

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

359131061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

Mar 26, 12:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

59.5%chance

205112159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1686

1115

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4372591

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

33

33

19

15

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Oct 24, 2:27 PMAug 31, 6:59 AM

23.71%chance

172163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1797

559

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