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Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Mar 13, 5:29 PMMar 14, 2:59 PM

42.22%chance

21651767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14214

3359

Will CrowdStrike pay more than $10m of civil or criminal liability for today's incident before 2027?

Jul 19, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.44%chance

4129880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

231

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

69.53%chance

342567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1647

426

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Sep 27, 11:50 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

11.92%chance

212184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2511

555

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?

Jul 1, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.18%chance

111524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

398

81

Will “woke (topic)” be more popular in the US on Google Trends five years from now than today?

Jun 4, 8:20 PMJun 5, 3:59 AM

23.89%chance

121321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

560

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will there be more paralegals and legal assistants employed in 2026 than today?

Mar 18, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.8%chance

16660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

683

How many new novels will Brandon Sanderson release between today (July 27, 2023) and December 31, 2030?

Jul 27, 2:53 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

40%chance

16369

OptionProbability

NO

YES

490

222

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

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