OptionProbability
Q1/Q2 '26
Q3/Q4 '25
Q3/Q4 '26
Q1/Q2 '27
Q1/Q2 '25
Q3/Q4 '27
2028 or later
24
23
18
14
10
7
5
$0.03 - $0.06
$0.06 - $0.12
$0.12 - $0.24
GPT-5 will exist by close date but not be accessible through API
$0.24 - $0.48
<$0.003
$0.01 - $0.03
>$0.48
$0.003 - $0.01
GPT-5 will not exist by close date
27
4
Google DeepMind
OpenAI
Anthropic
DeepSeek
xAI
Meta
Other
28
26
22
9
