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Prediction markets for Token Counting API

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

41.18%chance

292620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51228

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

Q3/Q4 '27

2028 or later

26

22

15

14

10

7

5

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